Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed neutral yesterday. The index heatmap showed that technology stocks were among the market’s underperformers, while nearly all other sectors ended up in favor. According to Bloomberg, U.S. nonfarm payroll data for December are expected to show job growth, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.6%. The consensus forecast points to an increase of 70,000 jobs. This morning, the focus is on the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision regarding Trump-era tariffs, which could be announced as early as today and may pose a serious test for U.S. equities and bonds. Other economic data indicated an unexpected 39% decline in the U.S. trade deficit to its lowest level since 2009, as well as an acceleration in labor productivity in the third quarter. Asian markets are showing moderate gains this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 posting the strongest advance, up 1.6%. S&P 500 futures are trading near neutral levels at the moment. Oil prices have jumped and are trading around $62.8 this morning. A Goldman Sachs survey shows that professional market participants are close to their most pessimistic outlook on oil in the past 10 years.
KASE Index. The KASE Index has recorded three consecutive sessions of growth, allowing it to обновить historical highs. If prices manage to consolidate at these new levels, this could open the way for more sustained long-term growth.
Index stocks. The strongest gain yesterday was posted by Kaspi shares, which mirrored the performance of their ADS on Nasdaq. Recall that on Tuesday, U.S.-listed shares confidently broke upward from a local consolidation, sending recovery signals. It is worth noting that a downward trendline connecting the peaks of July 18, 2024 and August 13, 2025 runs quite close to current ADS prices, which could become a new resistance level.
Kazatomprom shares on the LSE rose by 1.8%, setting new all-time highs. The session closed at the highs, which is a positive signal; however, the broader uranium sector experienced a slight decline yesterday. For Kazatomprom GDRs, it is now important to demonstrate consolidation at new highs. We also note that shares on the local market are trading nearly 3% cheaper than on the LSE, which is relatively rare.
Weaker performance yesterday was seen in the GDRs of Halyk Bank, which fell to their lowest levels since December 18. If prices fail to recover today, the technical picture will deteriorate and the risks of further correction will increase. GDRs and shares of Air Astana are also undergoing a correction, despite having ended 2025 on a strong note. The rally in Kazakhtelecom shares continues, even though yesterday’s gain was a relatively modest 0.6%. The uninterrupted growth streak has now reached six consecutive sessions.
Currency. Calm trading persists in the USDKZT currency pair. Today, the dollar is trading with low volatility near 509.7 tenge. The Russian ruble is strengthening against the U.S. dollar to 79.9, while the dollar index (DXY) is rising for the fourth consecutive session, reaching its highest levels since December 10.