Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. At first glance, the S&P 500 closed unchanged. However, there was considerable sector rotation beneath the surface: semiconductor stocks declined, while software companies, consumer-sector stocks, and healthcare companies posted solid gains.
According to Bank of America, investors withdrew $8.5 billion from U.S. equities during the week ending June 24. This marked the first weekly outflow since March.
According to a Bloomberg survey, economists raised their forecast for core U.S. inflation to 3.2% for the fourth quarter and lowered their unemployment forecasts for the coming year, pushing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts back to 2027.
Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit widened to its largest level in more than a year in May, driven by declining exports of industrial goods, including oil.
Brent crude prices fell below $72 on Friday as shipping traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate that Oman informed European officials that the waterway would not return to its pre-war operating regime and that vessels may face additional fees.
European markets declined more noticeably, with Germany's DAX posting the largest loss at 1.3%.
Traders have now removed expectations of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike this year after falling oil prices reduced inflation expectations.
The ECB's May consumer survey showed that eurozone consumers expect inflation to reach 3.5% over the next year, compared with 4.0% in April.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky approved a 40-day campaign aimed at persuading Russia to end the war.
Asian markets are showing moderately positive sentiment this morning. Chinese indices are advancing, while the more volatile markets of Japan and South Korea are trading largely flat.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% following an Axios report that the United States and Iran have agreed to halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar to resume negotiations.
KASE Index. The KASE Index continues to trade slightly below the psychologically important 7,000-point level.
Index constituents. On Friday, Halyk Bank shares fell to KZT 365, a level very close to the lows recorded in January of this year and representing strong horizontal support.
Kazatomprom experienced a decline of similar magnitude, with its GDRs on the London Stock Exchange falling by 2.7%.
However, this was not critical, as the shares once again approached their 200-day moving average and are rebounding by 1.2% at today's market open.
Kaspi's ADSs on Nasdaq gained 2.4%, which can be considered a strong result, as the shares have confirmed the upward trend that began on June 10.
The stock may now move toward its May highs, slightly above $93 per share.
On KASE, the fintech company's shares are up 1.2% today.
Currency. The USD/KZT exchange rate remains largely unchanged and continues to trade slightly above its 100-day moving average.
Meanwhile, the tenge continues to strengthen against the Russian ruble and is currently trading at KZT 6.2 per ruble. This reflects the weakening of the ruble against the U.S. dollar, which has approached the RUB 79 level.