Our comments and expectations
Market background. Yesterday’s session was positive for global markets. In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose for the third session in a row, gaining another +0.9%. Over three sessions, the index is up by +3.4%. Most sectors posted gains, although Nvidia and AMD stood out as two notable laggards, falling by -2.6–4.1%. November consumer confidence saw its sharpest decline in seven months. This occurred after delayed data showed retail sales in September increased only +0.2% month-over-month, below expectations, while the Producer Price Index rose +0.3%. Scott Bessent said in an interview that Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair. Meanwhile, Fed-linked futures now imply an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December — compared to just 30% a few days earlier. In geopolitics, Trump has sent his envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week. Bessent also noted that Trump and Xi Jinping could meet up to four times next year, ensuring “greater stability” in bilateral relations. European markets saw gains similar to the S&P 500. In early Asian trading, Hang Seng and CSI 300 rose +0.5–0.7%. Nikkei 225 jumped +1.8%. Oil is trading at $62.1. S&P 500 futures are up +0.3%. Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 could reach 8000 by the end of 2026.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell for a fourth straight session as rate-cut expectations increased. A JPMorgan client survey this week showed net long positions in U.S. Treasuries reached their highest level in about 15 years.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose for a second session in a row, up +0.3%, similar to the previous day. Most companies in the index were in the green, although Kaspi restrained further upside. Today we expect some position adjustments following yesterday’s growth in ADS.
Index stocks. Kaspi fell -1.2% locally but jumped +3.7% on Nasdaq. This rebound is still only an early indication of a potentially stronger upward trend — shares must break through resistance levels around $75.5 and $77. Among GDRs, Halyk Bank initially rose but retraced during the session, closing with a modest +0.8% gain. On the local exchange, Kazakhtelecom led the growth as it continues to recover after a long and sluggish downtrend. Air Astana remains on an upward trajectory, though at a slower pace. At the opening today, Kaspi and Kazatomprom are slightly up by +0.5%.
FX. The tax period ended yesterday, allowing the tenge to regain nearly +0.6% against the U.S. dollar. Today, the dollar is up +0.5%, testing the local descending trendline. The tenge has not yet shown the strengthening momentum we anticipated after November 20, but we will continue monitoring once the seasonal support trigger fades.