Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% on Friday, updating the highs on the closing price scale. Of the individual papers, Netflix can be noted, which jumped by 11.1% after the publication of the report. Apple gained 1.2% on the back of news that sales of the iPhone 16 in China increased by 20% in the first three weeks compared to the 2023 model. According to strategists at Bank of America, the chances of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, as well as Republican control of Congress, are increasing. In this regard, investors began to increase assets, which grew after the victory of the former president in 2016. Ray Dalio said that if Donald Trump loses the presidential election, the result is "equally likely" to be challenged. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 showed moderate growth, the DAX was able to update highs, and the French CAC 40 fell by 2.35%. Retail sales in the UK unexpectedly increased by 0.3% in September, despite expectations of a downturn. On Friday, the Hang Seng jumped significantly in Asia after data on China's GDP growth of 4.6% year-on-year and signs of bottoming out. After this report, China took measures to support the stock market. Asian indices have been showing sluggish dynamics since this morning. The key inflation indicator in Japan slowed in September to 2.4%, which was the first decline in the last five months. Oil prices declined at the end of last week and are now quoted at $73.4 per barrel of Brent. Gold has reached historic highs.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US bonds is now entering the consolidation stage at 4.1%.
The KASE index. The local market ended the session with a moderately negative result. The mark of 5,200 points turned out to be a locally insurmountable level, however, positive news that may affect KASE arrived after the closing of the trading session.
Index shares. A long shadow on the candle of the daily KASE chart was formed due to volatile trading in KMG shares at the start of the session. Nevertheless, such short-term drawdowns do not have a significant impact on the overall dynamics of stocks. The largest growth was recorded at ADS Kaspi, which grew by 7.8%. It became known that the fintech company will acquire a 65% stake in the Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada for $ 1.13 billion in cash as part of a deal that will expand its target market to 100 million people. Before the announcement, Hepsiburada's capitalization was about $ 707 million, and by the end of the day, the shares had risen by 59.55%. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, subject to regulatory approval. At the same time, Kaspi published a report for the 3rd quarter and announced a recommendation to pay quarterly dividends in the amount of 850 tenge. Kazatomprom also showed remarkable growth, which continued to strengthen its local positions and reached highs since July 8.
Currency. Over the past three trading days, the dollar has weakened against the tenge and decreased to a support level that coincides with the 50-day moving average on the USDKZT chart, which runs at 482.