Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 surged 1.8% yesterday, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.5%, once again highlighting the high volatility of technology stocks. The VIX fear index declined from the highs reached on April 7 to 19.43 points.
A key positive catalyst for the market was another shift in Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding Iran. Just two days ago, the U.S. President threatened to punish Iran for delaying negotiations. However, he later softened his stance, stating that the United States was close to reaching an agreement with Iran.
Subsequently, Trump announced that a “very strong” agreement had been reached to end the conflict with Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, under the agreement, the Islamic Republic would not pursue nuclear weapons, and the deal is expected to be signed this weekend.
Iran, however, maintains that a final agreement has not yet been reached and that “the problem began when the American side introduced new demands.”
Meanwhile, SpaceX raised $75 billion, becoming the largest IPO in history, and is set to begin trading on Nasdaq today.
Next week, investors will be watching the first Federal Reserve meeting under the leadership of Kevin Warsh.
In Europe, major indices posted more modest gains of 0.1–0.5%. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, while Christine Lagarde warned that inflation driven by the conflict with Iran is spreading beyond energy prices. Joachim Nagel stated that the ECB is prepared to raise rates again at its next meeting.
Market sentiment in Asia is positive this morning. South Korea’s Kospi is up 4.6%, while the Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 are gaining between 1.5% and 2.8%.
Oil prices have fallen below $90 per barrel, breaking below their 100-day moving average. Brent crude is currently trading at $88.6 per barrel. Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the average Brent price next year to $80 per barrel and for WTI to $75 per barrel.
S&P 500 futures are trading slightly lower, down 0.15%.
KASE Index. As expected, yesterday’s trading session on KASE was relatively calm. The index closed with a modest gain of 0.2%, and today local stocks are benefiting from positive momentum in Western markets, as well as gains in Kaspi and Kazatomprom shares.
Index constituents. At today’s market open, the KASE Index is up 0.8%.
Kazatomprom is leading the gains, rising 3.8%, despite its GDRs on the London Stock Exchange having closed only 0.7% higher yesterday. Moreover, shares on the local market were trading at a 1.1% premium to the GDRs, suggesting that investors may already be pricing in further upside.
Other uranium-related companies performed even better. The URA and URNM ETFs surged by 5.5–5.9%.
Kaspi gained 4.8%, rebounding immediately after entering oversold territory according to the RSI indicator. The stock moved back above its 200-day moving average, which it had recently broken below.
In our view, this rebound is a positive signal. However, the proximity of key resistance levels means that the position of the ADS remains somewhat fragile.
On KASE, Kaspi shares are up 1.7% today.
Currency. For the fourth consecutive session, the U.S. dollar has attempted to break above the KZT 490 level. However, by the end of each session, USD/KZT has closed below KZT 488. The same pattern is repeating today.