Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. S&P 500 closed down 0.4% yesterday, returning to the 7100 level. This occurred amid uncertainty over progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Reports emerged that the Iranian parliament speaker, who led the переговоры and was seen as relatively moderate, stepped down. There were also reports of airstrikes on Iran and activation of air defense systems due to drones, adding to investor concerns. Donald Trump said he had ordered to “shoot and destroy” any vessels mining the strait. Oil prices rose 4.5% on the news. U.S. initial jobless claims increased slightly, while PMI rose from 50.3 to 52 in April. Earnings season also influenced markets: Tesla raised its spending plan to $25bn annually, while IBM slower revenue growth weighed on the tech sector.
KASE Index. The index closed flat, holding slightly above key support levels. This keeps the possibility of renewed growth after local consolidation. Most stocks were positive, though trading volumes declined from KZT 10.5bn on Monday to KZT 1.14bn on Friday.
Index stocks. Kaspi.kz (-2.2%) was the main drag. On NASDAQ, shares declined for a third consecutive session, which may weigh on Friday trading. Halyk Bank GDRs fell 0.7% on London Stock Exchange. HSBK and KSPI have shown similar patterns since March. Kazatomprom rose 1.2% but may face pressure due to declines in uranium ETFs. Dividend expectations are in the range of KZT 1800–2000. KazMunayGas may benefit from rising oil prices. Bank CenterCredit gained 1.1%, potentially signaling upside. KEGOC reached highs since January, likely supported by dividend approval, with the record date set for May 12.
Currency. USDKZT showed indecision, fluctuating around 463. If this level fails, the pair may drop to 455. Otherwise, limited upside is expected, with no clear signs of a longer-term uptrend yet.