Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.5% amid expectations of rate cuts, reaching a new all-time high for the first time since February 19. Thus, the market has fully recovered the decline triggered by the launch of Trump’s aggressive foreign trade policy. Neil Kashkari from the Federal Reserve said he expects two rate cuts this year but warned that tariffs could have a delayed impact on inflation. On the macroeconomic front, consumer sentiment jumped to a four-month high, and inflation expectations improved significantly. The core PCE indicator rose by 0.2% in May — slightly above forecasts, but still indicating the need for a rate cut by the Fed. U.S. consumer spending fell the most since the beginning of the year, although separate sentiment data showed a sharp increase in June. President Donald Trump noted progress in trade negotiations, while Scott Bessent said deals could be finalized by September 1, implying that talks will continue beyond the July deadline. The EU and the U.S. believe some form of agreement could be reached by the July 9 deadline. In the Middle East, Iran denied plans to resume nuclear talks with the U.S., despite Trump suggesting a deal might be possible as soon as next week. In Europe, indices rose by 0.7–1.6%, continuing their rebound from the 50-day moving average. Consumer prices rose by 0.8% in France and by 2.2% in Spain in June. In Asia, morning trading is moderate, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading with a 0.8% increase. Overall inflation in Tokyo slowed to 3.1% year-on-year, compared to the forecast of 3.3%. Oil remains stable. According to the options market, traders now assess the probability of a major disruption in the Strait of Hormuz at less than 4%.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slightly increased, though it remains within a downward trend overall.
KASE Index. On Friday, the KASE Index rose by 0.7%, partially recovering and strengthening within a local consolidation range. A breakout would signal the breach of the local resistance level — the historical high of 6,030 points.
Index Stocks. On Friday, three stocks rose by more than 1% — BCC, KazMunayGas, and Kazakhtelecom. The biggest gains came from CCBN shares, allowing them to continue their rally and hit new all-time highs. Growth in KZTK and KMGZ shares did not significantly impact the technical picture. On the LSE and Nasdaq, our securities also performed well: Kaspi ADS rose by 3.1%, broke above the 50-day moving average, and is once again testing the downward trend. Halyk Bank GDRs are testing the $24.5 level — despite isolated closes above it, this level has most often capped growth since the end of April.
Currency. The USDKZT exchange rate is trading at 519.8 today, slightly above the downward trendline. At the same time, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken globally: the DXY index is at its lowest level in three years.