Our Comments and ExpectationsExternal Background
Yesterday’s session contrasted sharply with Friday’s — investors actively bought the dip, pushing the S&P 500 up by 1.5%. Among the Big Three indices, Nasdaq posted the highest gain at 1.95%, as tech giants outperformed other sectors. The economically sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies jumped by 2.2% amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts.
Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed stated that the time for rate cuts is approaching, citing growing evidence of labor market weakness and the absence of persistent inflation caused by tariffs. According to Bloomberg, Q2 earnings for S&P 500 companies exceeded expectations with a growth rate of 9.1% — three times the preseason forecast and the highest level since 2021.
On the tariff front, Donald Trump said he would "significantly increase" tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. In Europe, indices rose by 0.7–1.4%. In Asia this morning, Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 are up 0.6%, while Kospi adds 1.5%.
Oil prices stabilized after three sessions of decline, previously driven by increased OPEC output. Now, investors are evaluating potential risks to Russian oil supply following Trump’s intentions to “punish” India for its purchases. As of this morning, Brent is trading around $68.8 per barrel.
Bonds
The yield on U.S. government bonds reached 4.2% yesterday. This week, investors are preparing for the auction of new 3-, 10-, and 30-year Treasuries totaling $125 billion. Emerging market bonds have reached their highest levels since October 2024.
KASE Index
The KASE index declined for the third consecutive session, losing a total of 1.7% from its historic highs reached on July 28. Today, we expect a partial recovery supported by the strong rally of Kaspi’s ADSs on the U.S. exchange.
Index Stocks
Kaspi’s earnings report drew significant attention yesterday. Overall, the report can be considered neutral: revenues continue to grow, but net profit increased only marginally. Interest income in Q2 2025 reached a record 381 billion KZT, up 53% year-over-year and 16% quarter-over-quarter. The Marketplace segment again led growth, with revenues surging 172% YoY — largely due to the inclusion of Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada into the group.
As a result, Kaspi.kz reported a quarterly net profit of 259 billion KZT, up 6.6% YoY and 1.8% QoQ. Additionally, the company is meeting — and in some areas exceeding — its forecasts, particularly in payments and transactions. The number of active users rose by 6.8% YoY. The total quarterly value of goods sold surpassed the forecast by 15–20%. Kaspi was the top performer on the local market yesterday, while Halyk Bank shares posted the biggest decline. Nevertheless, the downward movement remains moderate — prices are forming a local triangle pattern.
Currency
The tax payment period has begun to positively impact the tenge, which is strengthening to 537 per U.S. dollar today. As expected, August is bringing more stability to the national currency.