Kaspi.kz JSC published its financial results for the Q2 2026. We assess the report as neutral: some segments are growing in line with expectations, while others continue to face challenges. Turkish Hepsiburada delivered underwhelming results in the second quarter. Nevertheless, we note a slowdown in the growth of interest expenses, which narrowed the gap with the growth rate of interest income. As a result, quarterly net profit increased only marginally. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance for all key metrics and increased the recommended quarterly dividend from ₸850 to ₸1,000 per ADR. In our valuation model, we updated the key financial metrics in line with management’s guidance and lowered the cost of equity. As a result, the target price per ADR was raised from $88 to $93, implying 5% downside from the current market price. Recommendation: Hold.
Core Valuation Factors. The main risk is investment in Turkey, including approximately $300 million allocated to capitalize Hepsi Bank. In addition, management’s guidance for adjusted EBITDA growth of around 5%, compared with 7% in the first half of the year, points to limited earnings momentum in the second half. Some pressure on net interest margin remains, although it eased in the second quarter as the gap between the growth rates narrowed from 8.6 percentage points in Q1 to 4.0 percentage points in Q2. Additional pressure comes from a slight deterioration in portfolio quality. The main catalyst is rapid growth in e-Commerce within the Marketplace segment. GMV in constant currency increased 28% year-on-year, while the number of orders rose 33% year-on-year. The e-Commerce take rate expanded, purchase frequency per active user increased from 11.6 to 15.8, and advertising and delivery revenue grew 49% year-on-year. Another positive factor is the banking license obtained in Turkey in July, which provides access to the Turkish market. The 100-basis-point decline in three-month deposit rates in August should have a positive impact on the interest-rate spread by year-end. Kaspi.kz also increased its recommended quarterly dividend by 18% to ₸1,000 per ADR, corresponding to a dividend yield of slightly above 8%.
Revenue is growing, but net profit remains stable. Interest income reached a record ₸483 billion in the second quarter (+27% YoY, +6.9% QoQ). However, quarterly interest expenses outpaced interest income for the fourth consecutive quarter in terms of year-on-year growth (+31% YoY, +6.6% QoQ). Nevertheless, the gap between the growth rates narrowed significantly compared with previous quarters, likely reflecting the effect of a high base in the same period last year. Net fee and commission income increased by 5.4% YoY and 5.6% QoQ. Retail revenue also grew at a similar rate of 5.8% YoY. Non-interest expenses increased by 15% YoY, mainly driven by an 11% YoY increase in the cost of goods and services and a 25% YoY increase in development and technology expenses. As a result, quarterly net profit amounted to ₸259 billion, +0.1% YoY and +2.8% QoQ. Net margin, including fee and retail income, declined by 3.2 percentage points.
Operating metrics: two out of three segments are tracking slightly below guidance. In the Payments segment, quarterly TPV increased by 13% YoY, close to management’s 2026 guidance of approximately 15%. The number of active users increased by 5% YoY, while the take rate declined from 1.07% to 1.0%. As a result, quarterly segment revenue increased by only 5% YoY to ₸169 billion. In the Marketplace segment, GMV, including Hepsiburada and measured in constant currency, increased by 15% YoY, below management’s full-year guidance of 20%. The take rate expanded from 11.0% to 12.1%, resulting in an 11% YoY increase in quarterly segment revenue to ₸508 billion. Estimated revenue from the Kazakhstan-only segment increased by 16% YoY. The number of active buyers reached 20.5 million, up 5% YoY. In the Fintech segment, TFV data was not provided. The average loan portfolio increased by 18% YoY, above management’s current guidance of 15%. Quarterly segment revenue increased by 23% YoY to ₸455 billion. The average annualized portfolio yield remained at 24%. The active Fintech user base increased by 2% YoY to 8.7 million.
Hepsiburada: growth is slowing and profitability is deteriorating. The consolidation of the Turkish marketplace no longer distorts the overall picture, which can now be compared on a year-on-year basis. Hepsiburada posted modest year-on-year growth in revenue and GMV in local currency. The number of orders increased by 13% YoY, resulting in a 9.4% YoY decline in average order value. Quarterly EBITDA fell sharply by 76% YoY, while first-half EBITDA declined by 39% YoY. Quarterly net loss increased by 56% YoY to ₸19.8 billion. Overall, the second quarter was relatively weak for Hepsiburada in terms of financial performance. Kaspi.kz completed the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. in Turkey and rebranded it as Hepsi Bank. The company has already launched buy-now-pay-later financing integrated into the Hepsiburada platform. In 2027, the key priority will be the development of lending and deposit products in Turkey.
Our Opinion and Changes to the Valuation Model. In our view, the second-quarter report was neutral. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance across all segments. We note a significant improvement in interest expenses, which had previously been growing substantially faster than interest income. The reduction in deposit rates in August should help the company slow the growth of interest expenses. The Marketplace and Payments segments are performing slightly below management’s guidance. Fintech is ahead of guidance in terms of its loan portfolio; however, the decision not to disclose TFV reduces the transparency of the outlook. Hepsiburada’s financial performance was less positive than in the previous quarter. However, the completion of the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. could help the Turkish marketplace improve its performance. Nevertheless, Turkey remains a capital-intensive market, where the company will allocate a significant portion of its cash flows. The recommended quarterly dividend was increased from ₸850 to ₸1,000 per ADR, which is a significant positive. In our valuation model, we updated the key financial metrics while maintaining the main forecasts in line with management’s guidance. Another change was a reduction in the cost of equity, reflecting the decline in the base rate and government bond yields. As a result, the updated target price for one Kaspi.kz ADR increased from $88 to $93, implying 5% downside from the current market price. Recommendation: “Hold.”
Author: Daniyar Orazbayev,
CFA, Investment Analyst
(+7) 727 311 10 64 (688) | [email protected]