Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 closed flat after setting new highs the day before yesterday. In the broader picture, the index’s performance looks like a local consolidation. The market was pressured by rising oil, which gained 5.2% and nearly reached $88 per barrel for Brent. The increase came amid a lack of progress and renewed negative sentiment among participants in the talks between Iran and the U.S. It is reported that Trump sharply criticized Iran’s demands for compensation for wartime losses as part of the conflict-settlement negotiations, which reduced hopes for a swift agreement that would allow the strait to reopen. Tomorrow the market is awaiting inflation data: according to Bloomberg’s median forecast, the consumer price index in July xwill rise by 0.1% after a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that several interest-rate hikes may be required to bring inflation down to target. JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,800 to 8,000 points. In Europe, indices closed flat. According to a Bloomberg survey, the eurozone growth forecast for 2026 was raised to 0.8% from 0.5% in July. This morning, moves in Asia are mixed but moderate. Oil is rising to almost $89 per barrel for Brent. S&P 500 futures are trading flat.
KASE Index. Today’s backdrop for KASE is positive due to global market performance as well as gains in our stocks on Western venues. The index quotes rose another 0.6% and are approaching the April 21 highs, which correspond to the upper boundary of a prolonged sideways trend.
Index stocks. The strongest gains yesterday were posted by Kaspi shares. The fintech company published results and also increased the quarterly dividend to 1,000 tenge, which is highly likely to be approved at the EGM on September 9. If this payout level is maintained, the dividend yield in 2026 will rise to 8.4% versus yesterday’s closing price. The Q2 report can preliminarily be described as moderately positive: operating metrics were strong, especially in e-Commerce and Fintech, but the high cost of funding and investments in Turkey continued to weigh on margins. With revenue up 15%, EBITDA increased by only 5%. Quotes on Nasdaq rose 4.1%, but the technical picture remains mixed: the ADS reached annual highs, yet the long upper shadow of the daily candle does not allow one to confidently speak of a breakout of a key resistance level. During the session, quotes rose to $97.5, but closed around $94, which is very close to the May highs and does not yet confirm a breakout. Meanwhile, Kazatomprom rose 4.5% on the LSE — a very solid result with a good chance of continuing the upward move. From a fundamental standpoint, the main pressure on Kazatomprom shares right now is the strong tenge.
Currency. The dollar is trying to break below the lows of July 9 and 23. Such a breakout could strengthen the tenge and underscore the dollar’s ongoing weakness versus the national currency.