Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.3%, the Nasdaq by 1.1%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.5%. After Thursday’s broad sell-off, technology stocks rebounded: the SOX semiconductor index gained 4.2%, with Nvidia and AMD higher. However, all three major U.S. indices ended the week lower, and the Nasdaq declined for a fourth consecutive week. In Europe, the sell-off continued: the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 lost 1.0% each, while the DAX fell 1.9%. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 6.0% on Friday. The U.S. labor market report came in stronger than expected: in October, non-farm payrolls increased by 165k versus a 65k forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. After the release, the implied probability of a Fed rate hike in December rose to about 78%. The 10-year UST yield increased by 2 bps to 4.86%, and the dollar index added 0.7%. Gold fell 0.9% to $4 074,9 per ounce. Brent finished the session virtually unchanged at $98,32 per barrel. On Monday morning, Asian markets are recovering slightly, with the Nikkei leading, up 2.2%, and S&P 500 futures up about 0.6%. Oil traded near $98,2 after Trump’s statement that new U.S. strikes on Iran are unlikely as peace talks progress.
KASE Index. The KASE Index fell 0.5% on Friday, and lost 1.3% over the week. Quotes broke down out of the local upward channel, which increases the risk of a negative scenario playing out with a break below the lower boundary of the “bear flag” formation that we mentioned in previous reviews. Nevertheless, stabilization of GDR and ADS prices on Western exchanges will most likely lead to a shift into a sideways trend, since the index still has horizontal support levels at 7770 and 7725 points.
Index stocks. The main pressure came from Kaspi.kz and Kazatomprom. Against the broader move, Air Astana and KazMunayGas rose. Kaspi.kz fell 2.6% to 41 610 tenge, pricing in the decline in its U.S.-listed ADS in the prior session. On Friday on Nasdaq, the receipts stabilized, adding 0.1% to $91,68. Today the company is due to publish its results for 3Q and nine months. The main focus will be on the dynamics of revenues and profit, the loan portfolio, the payments business and marketplace, as well as the performance of Turkey’s Hepsiburada. Of particular interest are business growth rates after the acquisition of Rabobank in Turkey and a possible update to management’s 2026 guidance. There is still no officially confirmed quantitative earnings consensus. The date was announced by the company. management is scheduled for 18:00 Almaty time. Conference call. Kazatomprom on the local market fell 1.3%. At the same time, its GDR rose a timely 2.2%, as they had nearly reached the 2026 lows and needed a rebound from support levels. No material price gap between exchanges is observed. The rise in the receipts provides a more favorable reference point for today’s trading. Air Astana rose 0.4% to 677 tenge. In the news flow, there was an announcement on the resumption of FlyArystan direct flights on the Aktau — Dubai route. However, this news is unlikely to have been the trigger for the rise, so we expect more meaningful news in the quarterly report due out on Thursday.
Currency. USDKZT fell 0.6% to 448 tenge. Over the week, the dollar weakened by about 1.2%. The tenge continued to strengthen despite a rise in DXY, a weakening ruble, and virtually unchanged oil prices on Friday. The pair held the previously noted support area around 448 tenge and this morning is showing a rebound to 449 tenge.
En