External Background.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks continued to set historical highs against the backdrop of strong consumer sales data. The Dow index rose particularly sharply by 1.85%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% and the Nasdaq by 0.2%. It's worth noting the ongoing rotation into small-cap stocks: the Russell 2000 index rose by 3.5% yesterday and by 10.8% over the past four days. U.S. consumer sales were unchanged in June, which was better than analysts' consensus forecast of a 0.3% decline. Bank of America, following Goldman Sachs, exceeded market expectations for net income and saw its share price increase by 5.3%. UnitedHealth also reported excellent results, contributing to the sharp rise in the Dow index. The European Stoxx 600 index fell again, this time by a modest 0.3%, amid declines in commodity companies and luxury goods firms following a weak forecast from Hugo Boss. Asian markets are showing neutral results this morning. The Hong Kong and Japanese indices are slightly up, while the Korean and Chinese indices are experiencing minor declines. Oil prices fell slightly by 1.2% amid slowing GDP growth in China.
Bonds.
The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell significantly on Tuesday, from 4.23% to 4.16%, marking a four-month low amid expectations of a rate cut from the Fed.
KASE Index.
The KASE index fell by 0.24% on Tuesday, largely due to the continued decline in Kcell shares that began last week. Overall, declines were noted across eight stocks, while only Kaspi.kz and Kazakhtelecom showed positive performance.
Index Stocks.
The main decline yesterday was seen in Kcell shares, which fell by 1.8% after a slight recovery on Monday. As a result, the shares closed even lower than Friday's levels, opening the path to 2720 tenge. It is also worth noting the change in the chairman of the company's board, which resulted from a change in management at the parent company, Kazakhtelecom. The largest growth yesterday was seen in Kaspi.kz shares, which ultimately rose by 1%. Later in the evening, the ADRs on Nasdaq showed a more substantial increase of 3.1%, setting a new historical high since their placement. Thus, shares on KASE are priced 2.7% lower than the ADRs, and we are likely to see a compensatory rise after trading opens. Overall, our forecast for local growth toward 66,000 tenge remains relevant. Given yesterday's rise in ADRs, we do not rule out that quotes could rise even higher. Additionally, the company will report on its second-quarter results on Monday, which could also serve as a growth factor. BCK shares ended the day below the psychological level of 2000 tenge, but this time without a momentary rise above that level. Air Astana shares fell by another 0.9% on KASE, while their GDRs on LSE increased by 2%. As a result, the discount on shares on KASE rose from 3.7% to a significant 6.8%.
Currency.
Yesterday, the dollar appreciated by 1.64 tenge and closed at 474.93 tenge, with a slight decrease in trading volumes.