Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 jumped by 1% yesterday. The index gained throughout almost the entire session, triggered by another shift in Trump's rhetoric toward Iran. Yesterday morning, market sentiment was negative following the unsuccessful conclusion of talks and the announcement of a retaliatory U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. However, by the evening, Trump stated that Iran had approached his administration with a proposal for peace talks, which was enough for investors to return to an optimistic stance. Bloomberg reports that the parties may hold negotiations before April 21. Meanwhile, a new earnings season kicked off in the U.S. with Goldman Sachs reporting results; its shares fell 1.9% amid a disappointing start to the season. The market expects S&P 500 companies to show approximately 12% y-o-y earnings growth for the first quarter. According to a Morgan Stanley strategist, favorable corporate earnings dynamics are shielding the S&P 500 from deeper losses. European markets closed neutral yesterday, while Asian markets showed a moderate decline. This morning, the picture is more positive: the Nikkei 225 and Kospi indices are rising by 1.6% and 3%, respectively. Brent crude is trading at $98.4 per barrel this morning. S&P 500 futures remain neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral again yesterday, with low stock volatility. Trading volumes rose to 2.3 billion tenge, though half of this amount was accounted for by KazTransOil shares. On foreign exchanges, HSBK and Kaspi quotes provided positive technical signals.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, KMG shares showed the largest growth, rising by 1.1%. Given that the oil rally paused with a pullback below $100, quotes may take a neutral position today. KZTO shares saw 1.1 billion tenge in turnover. While Kaspi shares declined locally, their quotes on the Nasdaq delivered a surprise, jumping by 6.2%. This rally allowed the stock to close above a key downward trend line and offset the losses of the previous three sessions. The most critical factor for these shares now is consolidating above resistance levels, as ADSs often show false breakouts before retreating. Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada also rose by 4.8% yesterday. One trigger for this growth may have been the news that Kaspi.kz and Uzbekistan's Humo finally agreed to establish a unified payment space and integrate systems between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. As a reminder, Kaspi.kz previously withdrew from the privatization of the Humo payment system in Uzbekistan. Additionally, Halyk Bank GDRs provided positive technical signals on the LSE. Quotes closed at $33.2, which is above our noted resistance level of $33. Much like Kaspi, Halyk Bank needs to consolidate at these new levels.
Currency. USDKZT found support around 471 tenge and is rising for the second consecutive session today. It appears that the dollar will move into local consolidation in the coming sessions.