Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 declined by another 0.5%. The biggest underperformers in the market were volatile mega-cap stocks. Nvidia and Broadcom dropped by 3.1% and 4.9%, respectively. Investors are on edge ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow, especially after reports that Microsoft has abandoned some AI data center leases. Yesterday’s news cycle was dominated by headlines about Trump, tariffs, and the war in Ukraine. The U.S. president announced that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, although some sources indicate that the final schedule has yet to be approved. At the same time, he stated that he is engaged in "very serious" negotiations with Vladimir Putin regarding an end to the war in Ukraine. However, the U.S. voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion, deepening divisions with G7 allies. On the economic front, traders are awaiting U.S. consumer confidence data, which is expected to have declined in February after job market reports showed slowing employment growth. In Europe, major indices ended the session with moderate declines. Germany is reportedly discussing up to €200 billion in special defense spending. This morning, Asian stocks are under pressure due to Trump’s statements. The U.S. is developing tougher export restrictions on chips to China and pressuring the Netherlands and Japan to tighten controls. According to BofA, OPEC+ could restore oil production by about 150,000 barrels per day starting in April as Trump seeks to lower prices. Brent crude is trading at $75 this morning.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds continues to decline amid uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Yesterday, it fell to levels last seen on December 17.
KASE Index. The KASE index closed neutral yesterday, although long shadows remained on the daily candlestick. The local market has entered earnings season, which could trigger increased stock movements.
Index Stocks. The best performer yesterday was KMG, which continues to show signs of recovery despite oil prices remaining neutral around $75. This morning, Kaspi shares are down 1.1% at the open, contradicting the company’s strong earnings report released yesterday. Kaspi reported solid Q4 results, demonstrating confident growth in key financial metrics. Quarterly interest income increased by 34% year-over-year, while commission fees rose by 20% YoY. As a result, quarterly net profit grew by 28% YoY. Overall, Kaspi.kz met its own forecasts for revenue and net profit growth and even exceeded expectations in some areas. For 2025, excluding the Turkish Hepsiburada, net profit is expected to grow by 20%, while key operational indicators are projected to rise by 15–20% and 25–30%.
Currency. Yesterday, the USDKZT exchange rate reversed, with the tenge strengthening to 500, and today it has reached 498.3. It appears that domestic demand for dollars is being suppressed by external factors weakening the currency. The resistance level for the tenge at around 496 has not yet been breached.