Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose by 1.2% yesterday. The market recovery continued, with quotes reaching their highest level since February 11. From the bottom on March 30 to the present, the index has gained 9.8%. Optimistic sentiment around further peace negotiations between the United States and Iran continued to strengthen. Reports indicate that both countries aim to hold additional discussions before the ceasefire agreement expires on April 21. Oil prices continued to decline yesterday after reversing during the April 13 session. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the war will lead to a sharp slowdown in global oil demand growth for the first time since the start of the 2020 pandemic. Meanwhile, U.S. banks continued releasing earnings reports: after Goldman Sachs shares declined, Wells Fargo stock also fell, while Citigroup shares rose following news of its highest quarterly profit in five years. Economic data indicated weaker inflationary pressure than expected. U.S. wholesale prices in March increased less than forecast despite a sharp rise in energy prices linked to the war with Iran. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% compared with a forecast of 1.1%, while the core indicator excluding food and energy increased by only 0.1%. These figures contrasted with the higher inflation data released last week. This morning, Asian markets are showing moderate growth. China’s CSI 300 remains neutral, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei 225 are up by 0.5%, and Korea’s Kospi has gained 2.6%. S&P 500 futures are trading flat, while Stoxx 600 and DAX futures are slightly down. Oil is trading at $95.7 per barrel.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by 0.6% yesterday, giving the first signals of a possible upward breakout from the local consolidation range. Quotes closed at 7,772 points, which is higher than all closing levels since March 20. However, we do not yet see a clear breakout — another positive trading session would provide more confidence.
Index stocks. The largest gain yesterday was recorded in Kaspi shares. As previously noted, the quotes signaled growth after surging on Monday and breaking above an important downward trend line. On Nasdaq, the shares consolidated their gains and added another 3%, already providing more long-term growth signals. The nearest resistance is around $84, with a potential move toward $90. Halyk Bank ranked second in terms of growth, although its session on the LSE was less successful. GDRs rose by nearly 3% during the session, but sellers later stepped in to take profits and returned the quotes to their starting levels. Nevertheless, we continue to highlight Halyk Bank as one of the most attractive portfolio stocks, offering high dividends, low valuation multiples, and strong fundamental growth potential. Yesterday, KEGOC announced the size of its semiannual dividend — 81 tenge per share with a record date of May 12.
Currency. The dollar closed yesterday at around 476 tenge, although during the session it rose to 478.5 tenge. Today the situation remains largely unchanged, and we believe that USDKZT will continue moving within a sideways trend in the near term.