JSC Kaspi.kz published its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. We assess the report as neutral: part of the growth in indicators was associated with the consolidation of Hepsiburada. Nevertheless, we note the sharp increase in the performance of the e-Commerce subsegment within Marketplace. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% year-over-year, while net profit slightly declined due to the consolidation of Hepsiburada expenses and higher funding costs. Management confirmed its 2026 guidance across all key metrics and recommended a quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS. In our valuation model, we updated the main financial indicators, which led to some changes in individual income and expense items. As a result, the target price for one ADS was raised from $87 to $88, implying a 1% overvaluation. Recommendation: “Hold”.
Key valuation factors.
The main risk remains the continued pressure on net interest margin due to rising funding costs. Interest expenses increased by 46% year-over-year, outpacing the growth in interest income, and this gap has not yet narrowed. Additional pressure comes from the full consolidation of Hepsiburada, which is now included for the entire quarter versus only two months in Q1 last year. Management confirmed Hepsiburada’s strategy of maintaining EBITDA breakeven while prioritizing investments in order growth, which constrains consolidated margins. Management guidance also points to limited profit growth over the next year. The main catalyst is the rapid growth of e-Commerce metrics within the Marketplace segment. GMV grew by 41% year-over-year and revenue by 58%, partly due to inorganic growth. The e-Commerce take rate expanded by 90 basis points to 15.8%, while purchase frequency per active user increased from 10.4 to 15.0 (+44% YoY). Another positive factor is the successful placement of five-year eurobonds worth $600 million at a 5.9% rate in April 2026, strengthening the company’s predictable dollar liquidity. Kaspi.kz also confirmed its intention to pay quarterly dividends of KZT 850 per ADS, corresponding to a dividend yield slightly above 8%.
Revenue and profit: revenue growth, decline in net profit.
Interest income in Q1 reached a record KZT 452 billion (+38% YoY, +2.5% QoQ). However, quarterly interest expenses outpaced revenue growth for the third consecutive quarter (+46% YoY, +2.6% QoQ), indicating persistent growth in funding costs due to the high base rate. Net fee and transaction income grew by 24% YoY and declined by 14% QoQ following the seasonally strong fourth quarter. Non-interest expenses increased by 47% YoY, mainly due to higher cost of goods and services associated with the consolidation of the Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada (+56% YoY). As a result, quarterly net profit amounted to KZT 252 billion (-0.8% YoY, -9.1% QoQ). Net margin declined by 7.6 percentage points, mainly due to consolidation effects (-4.4 p.p.) and higher interest expenses (-2.5 p.p.).
Hepsiburada: orders continue to grow, exchange rate pressure remains.
The consolidation of the Turkish marketplace remains the key factor distorting the overall picture. Last year, only two months of the quarter were included in consolidation. The marketplace demonstrated solid growth in revenue, GMV, and order volume in real terms in Turkish lira compared to Q1 last year. However, due to the tenge strengthening by 19% YoY against the lira, growth appeared less impressive. In tenge terms, GMV grew by 3.5% YoY, while revenue declined by 0.8% YoY. At the same time, margins improved significantly compared to last year’s loss-making period. EBITDA increased by 173% in tenge terms, while net profit reached KZT 11.3 billion compared to a loss of KZT 6.5 billion a year earlier. We also note a solid 22% YoY increase in order volume.
Operating metrics: 2 out of 3 forecasts are being met.
In the Payments segment, quarterly TPV grew by 14% YoY, close to management’s 2026 guidance (~15%). The number of active users increased by 6.5% YoY, while the take rate declined from 1.09% to 1.03%. As a result, revenue increased by only 7% YoY to KZT 158 billion. In the Marketplace segment, GMV including Hepsiburada rose by 19% YoY, in line with the annual forecast of around 20%. The take rate expanded from 11.1% to 12.1%, resulting in segment revenue growth of 49% YoY to KZT 520 billion. However, it should be noted that part of the growth was driven by the consolidation of Hepsiburada. Revenue from the Kazakhstan-only segment increased by 17% YoY. The number of active buyers reached 20.4 million (+3% YoY). In the Fintech segment, TFV declined by 2% YoY, below management’s guidance of around 5%, although management characterizes the slowdown as a controlled shift in the portfolio toward longer-duration, higher-yield products. The average loan portfolio grew by 23% YoY and 3% QoQ, with growth rates slowing. The average annual portfolio yield remained at 24%. The active Fintech user base increased by 6% YoY to 14.7 million.
Our view and changes to the valuation model.
The first-quarter report was neutral overall and does not change our investment thesis. Management confirmed its 2026 guidance across all segments, reducing the risk of downward revisions during the year. We note solid growth in the Marketplace and Payments segments within guidance expectations. We also highlight increasing activity on the Hepsiburada marketplace. Combined with the Rabobank acquisition, this effect may accelerate further. On the other hand, FX losses related to Hepsiburada somewhat constrain overall growth, while the Fintech segment showed a decline. The gap between interest income and expenses is likely to begin narrowing amid the bond issuance and expected base rate cuts in the second half of the year. Hepsiburada will continue to remain a capital-intensive direction where the company will allocate most of its cash flows. Nevertheless, quarterly dividends at the level of KZT 850 have been confirmed and will likely provide good support for the stock price. In our valuation model, we updated the main financial indicators and arrived at approximately the same level of profit as in the previous version of the valuation. As a result, the updated target price for one Kaspi.kz ADS increased from $87 to $88, implying a 1% overvaluation. Our recommendation remains unchanged: “Hold”.