Kaspi.kz Publishes Financial Results for Q2 2025. The report can be considered neutral: despite strong growth across all major segments exceeding management guidance, actual quarterly net income increased only slightly. Additionally, the net quarterly loss from the recently acquired Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada widened. Management maintained its growth forecasts despite the acceleration in Q2 and expects to resume dividends/buybacks next year. In our valuation model, we updated key financial metrics and slightly improved forecasts based on stronger-than-expected growth in core metrics. This also had a positive impact on the projected growth of the loan portfolio. On the other hand, the rise in the USD/KZT exchange rate and the weakening of the Turkish lira against the tenge led to a decline in valuation. We also note a minor effect from the increase in the cost of capital. As a result, our updated target price per Kaspi.kz GDR is $109, implying a 22% upside from the current market price. Recommendation — Buy.
(=) Revenue continues to grow, but net income increase is modest. Interest income in Q2 2025 reached a record 381 billion KZT, up 53% y/y and 16% q/q. Net commission and transaction income rose 28% y/y and 9.5% q/q, mainly due to the seasonally weaker Q1. The Marketplace segment saw the highest revenue growth again, with a 172% y/y increase, largely due to the inclusion of Turkish marketplace Hepsiburada. Meanwhile, Fintech and Payments grew 20% and 16% y/y, respectively. Quarterly interest expenses grew at a slower pace than interest income — 48% y/y, though up 19% q/q. Non-interest expenses surged 242% y/y and 37% q/q, mainly due to a 284% y/y increase in cost of goods and services after consolidating Hepsiburada. As a result, Q2 net income reached 259 billion KZT, up 6.6% y/y and 1.8% q/q.
(+) Guidance is being met or exceeded. Payment segment transaction volume rose 22% y/y, above the full-year guidance of 15–20%. The number of revenue-generating transactions grew 13% y/y, while active users increased by 6.8% y/y. Quarterly GMV in Marketplace rose 14% y/y, or 25% excluding Hepsiburada — above the 15–20% guidance but in line with the earlier 25–30% range. The take rate was 10.2% vs. 10.3% in Q1. Active buyers grew 11% y/y to 8.4 million. The Fintech segment saw loan issuance (TFV) grow 21% y/y, beating the 15% guidance but within the earlier 15–20% range. The loan portfolio grew 33% y/y and 6.6% q/q, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth. Meanwhile, average annual portfolio yield remained flat at 24%. The number of Kaspi.kz app users slightly recovered after stagnation in the previous quarter. In H1, daily active users (DAU) reached 10.3 million (+8.4% y/y, +2% q/q) and monthly active users (MAU) hit 15 million (+5.6% y/y, +0.7% q/q). Management maintained its net income growth forecast of 15% for 2025, with current results tracking in line.
Changes in the valuation model and our opinion. Overall, Q2 results can be seen as neutral. Net income did not grow significantly, and Hepsiburada’s results were worse than in Q1. The net loss from the Turkish business rose from 5.5 billion KZT in Q1 to 17.1 billion KZT in Q2. Nevertheless, interest income in Kazakhstan continues to grow, and all three core segments posted stronger growth than guided. The company still plans to resume shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks) next year. In our model, we slightly upgraded forecasts for Fintech and Payments segments due to stronger-than-expected annual growth. For Hepsiburada, we maintained revenue growth assumptions but the continued depreciation of the Turkish lira vs. KZT led to lower projected revenues. We also raised our loan portfolio growth forecast thanks to better actual results and Fintech expansion. However, interest expenses were revised slightly upward due to expectations of rising deposits. The tenge's depreciation lowered the USD valuation per GDR. Additionally, higher yields on 10-year Kazakhstan government bonds raised the cost of equity, negatively impacting valuation. As a result, our updated valuation for one Kaspi.kz GDR is $109, implying 22% upside from the last market price. Recommendation — Buy.
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