Kaspi.kz JSC has published its financial results for Q4 2024.
The report can be considered moderately positive, as the company set new quarterly records for both revenue and profit. Moreover, Kaspi.kz met its own forecasts for revenue and net profit growth in 2024. However, the management's outlook for key operating indicators in 2025 came in slightly below our expectations. Nonetheless, we have updated the overall financial metrics in our valuation model and increased the company's equity at year-end.
On the other hand, the company does not plan to pay dividends for Q4 2024 and H1 2025, as it aims to finance the acquisition of Hepsiburada. This slightly lowered our valuation, along with the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar and rising yields on Kazakhstan's government bonds, which increased the risk-free rate. As a result, our updated target price for one Kaspi.kz GDR has been revised to $126, representing a 22% upside potential from the current price. Recommendation – "Buy".
(+) Record-breaking quarterly revenue and net profit.
The company’s interest income in Q4 2024 reached a record KZT 309 billion, increasing 34% YoY and 9% QoQ. Net commission and transaction revenue rose 20% YoY and 12% QoQ. The Marketplace segment continued to show the highest revenue growth, with a 43% YoY increase, significantly accelerating from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the annual revenue growth for the Fintech and Payments segments was 26% and 19%, respectively.
Quarterly interest expenses grew at a slower rate than interest income—23% YoY. Compared to the previous quarter, interest expenses rose 3.6% QoQ. Non-interest expenses increased by 34% YoY and 11% QoQ, mainly due to a 57% YoY rise in the cost of goods and services. However, thanks to the strong growth in core revenues, Kaspi.kz's quarterly net profit reached a record KZT 316 billion, increasing 28% YoY and 11% QoQ. For the full year 2024, profit growth stood at 25%, in line with management’s forecast of 25%.
(+) Management’s forecasts continue to be met.
The volume of revenue-generating transactions in the Payments segment increased by 29% YoY, while the number of revenue-generating transactions rose by 33% YoY, and active users grew by 5.4% YoY. As a result, the segment’s quarterly revenue grew by 19% YoY, and for the full year 2024, the revenue growth was 23%, slightly exceeding management’s 20% forecast.
In the Marketplace segment, the total quarterly value of goods sold increased by 38% YoY. The segment’s take rate slightly increased from 9.5% to 9.7%. The number of active buyers rose 14% YoY, reaching 8.1 million. Quarterly revenue in the segment grew by 43% YoY, while full-year 2024 revenue growth was 64%, just below the previous management forecast of 65%.
The Fintech segment saw a 16% YoY increase in issued loans for the quarter. The company’s loan portfolio grew 35% YoY and 9.3% QoQ, showing acceleration. Meanwhile, the portfolio’s average annual yield remained stable at 24%. The segment’s quarterly revenue increased by 26%, while full-year 2024 revenue growth stood at 25%, exceeding the management's 20% forecast.
The number of Kaspi.kz app users has continued to rise for the third consecutive quarter, showing strong momentum. As of the end of 2024, the daily active users (DAU) reached 10.1 million (+11% YoY and +5.2% QoQ), while the monthly active users (MAU) reached 14.7 million (+5% YoY and +2.1% QoQ).
Changes in valuation model and our view.
The company fully met its 2024 forecasts. For 2025, management has slightly adjusted its forecasting approach. Nevertheless, the expected growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) in the Marketplace segment is 25-30%, revenue-generating transaction volume growth in the Payments segment is 15-20%, and issued loan volume growth in the Fintech segment is 15-20%. These figures came in slightly below our previous expectations in the valuation model.
Management will not pay dividends for Q4 2024 and H1 2025, as funds will be allocated for the acquisition of Hepsiburada, which was approved and completed in January.
Additionally, the increase in Kazakhstan’s 10-year government bond yields and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar raised the company’s cost of equity, negatively affecting the valuation model.
As a result, the updated target price for one Kaspi.kz GDR is set at $126, with a 22% upside potential from the last market price. Our recommendation remains – "Buy".