Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose another 0.4% yesterday, recouping Friday’s losses following positive inflation data, expectations of a softer Fed tone, and a strong start to earnings season. Nearly all megacap stocks posted notable gains, except Nvidia. The financial sector also performed well, and the Financial Sector SPDR ETF reached all-time highs. Nevertheless, money markets continued to fully price in an interest-rate hike this year, though not before December. Oil failed to extend gains, running into resistance at the 50- and 100-day moving averages. The Fed’s Beige Book showed that, according to survey data, U.S. economic activity in recent weeks grew at a slight to moderate pace, while employment levels were virtually unchanged in most regions. In Europe, the situation remained fairly calm. Sentiment in Asia has turned negative again this morning—semiconductor makers’ shares are falling, dragging down the Nikkei 225 (-2.5%) and the Kospi (-6.4%). Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng continues a confident growth wave, gaining about 10% since June 29. At the same time, news this morning indicates that Taiwan Semiconductor beat profit forecasts, a sign of resilient demand for artificial intelligence technologies. Oil is trading at $84.8, and S&P 500 index futures are up 0.1%.
KASE Index. The KASE is up 0.4% after the 0.8% decline the day before yesterday. This dynamic is still part of the sideways consolidation the market is experiencing during the seasonally quiet summer period.
Index stocks. The volatile pair of Kaspi and Kazatomprom posted gains yesterday. The close on the LSE and Nasdaq was relatively calm: Kaspi rose 0.2%, while Kazatomprom fell 0.9%. Uranium funds URA and URNM declined 1.4–1.6%, while KAP GDRs are sitting right at a support level. The shares may continue moving sideways; however, further downside would worsen the technical picture. Kaspi, meanwhile, is consolidating around $90.3–90.8. We note that Kazakhtelecom continues to rise, although it has only a minor impact on the index due to its small weight. At today’s market open, the largest price deviation is seen in Kazatomprom, which is down 1.2%.
Currency. The dollar fell yesterday toward 466 tenge, where the previous USDKZT lows are located; however, it closed slightly higher—around 469 tenge. Today, the U.S. currency is rising to 472 tenge and is most likely forming a triangular consolidation. Meanwhile, the ruble weakened to 77.8 per dollar and 6.03 tenge, which is the lowest level since April for the RUBKZT pair.