Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. On Tuesday, the U.S. market again diverged by sector: the Nasdaq gained about 0.5% and for the second day in a row set a record closing high, the S&P 500 finished flat, and the Dow fell 0.4%. The tech sector was supported by strong demand for Meta’s new AI agent Meta Muse: Shopify jumped 7% after announcing a partnership with Meta, and the semiconductor index rose by more than 2%. Banks came under pressure on Fed rate concerns (JPMorgan lost more than 3%), while small caps looked better than the broader market. Oil declined for a fifth consecutive session. Brent intraday fell to $97 on reports that Iran was ready to open the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the U.S. eased military pressure, although Iran’s Fars agency denied the information. By the close, the decline narrowed to 1% (around $99) after Trump said a deal with Iran is possible after the midterm elections. Prices are also being weighed down by the partial restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. In Europe, trading was mixed: the Stoxx 600 added a symbolic 0.1%, the DAX closed flat, and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.3% under pressure from insurers and banks. In focus remain today’s speech by Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly and the Trump-Xi summit on Thursday. This morning, Asian markets are also trading mixed in the wake of Wall Street: the Kospi is up about 0.4%, Hang Seng futures point to a 0.7% decline, and Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday until Thursday.
KASE Index. On Tuesday, KASE posted a modest 0.1% gain, approaching a local horizontal level at 7900 points. The main contribution to the index’s rise came from Kazatomprom and KazTransOil, which showed roughly a 1.5% daily increase.
Index stocks. Kazatomprom continues its recovery on both exchanges. GDRs on the LSE rose another 1.6%, as did the shares on KASE. We note a likely start of a rebound in uranium stocks and Kazatomprom from the ascending trend line. Nevertheless, time and additional signals are needed to confirm a new growth wave. KazTransOil shares also continued to rise and again tried to move above the 1300 tenge level. This time, selling volumes around 1300 tenge were more significant. If this level is broken, further growth to 1370 tenge can be expected. The biggest decline yesterday was in Kaspi.kz shares, which reflected Monday’s 1.1% drop in the ADS in the U.S. Yesterday, the ADS on Nasdaq closed unchanged, but a noticeable premium in the share price remains at 2.7%. It is probably worth waiting for a price of $93 for a local buy, where trend support runs. The other index constituents did not show any significant price movement.
Currency. USDKZT fell by almost 1.7 tenge yesterday, to a level slightly below 447. The pair’s quotes were unable to break above 449 tenge after two consecutive trading sessions. Trading volumes fell by $61 mln versus Monday and were the lowest since the previous rebound.