Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 closed neutral yesterday. The quotes showed a slowdown near historical highs. The technological Nasdaq lost 0.16%, while the industrial Dow Jones rose 0.47%. Google shares fell 2.4% after ChatGPT introduced its AI-based browser. The White House has made it clear that trade negotiations with China are going according to plan, and the strong profits of several regional banks have eased concerns about lending in the sector. Goldman Sachs believes that the string of losses at regional banks related to the alleged fraud was an isolated incident. In Europe, the indices showed moderate growth of 0.2–0.3%. There was a sharp pullback in prices for precious metals in the commodity market — gold and silver fell at increased volumes; at the same time, there were no separate triggers, most likely, investors are fixing positions at sharply increased quotes. Prices remain volatile this morning: gold dropped to $4,042 per ounce, but then recovered to $4,172. Oil started to rise after falling to around $60. The positive news is that the United States and India are close to concluding a trade agreement that could lead to a gradual reduction in Russian oil imports. There is a slight pullback of Chinese companies on Asian stock exchanges: the Hang Seng is down 1%, the CSI 300 is down 0.3%. Futures for the S&P 500 index are currently adding 0.1%.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield continues to decline. The growth rate of emerging market bonds has slowed.
The KASE index. KASE closed neutrally yesterday, as we expected. Trading volumes are gradually decreasing, which may be a sign of a slowdown in the decline in quotations. Nevertheless, this morning the index is losing another 0.5% due to pressure from Kazatomprom shares.
Index shares. Kazatomprom has been overtaken by a local correction, which, most likely, is part of a global metal sell-off. The uranium company's quotes have been growing at a good pace since the end of August, which eventually led to profit-taking. We do not note any fundamental shift here either in the company itself (which is unlikely to be the reason) or in global markets. In addition, on the LSE premarket, GDRs show an increase of 3% at once, which looks positive, at least because the securities did not fall below the support level of $ 50. Otherwise, the shares of the Kazakh market look neutral, which fits into the assumption that the correction of the local market will begin to fade in the near future. We are still watching Kaspi shares, which were forecast to grow in the last review. On Nasdaq, the quotes closed with a slight decrease, and on KASE they rose by 0.9% yesterday, but today they are decreasing by 0.7%. Before showing a rebound, we may see another short wave of decline, which, however, will not prevent the formation of an upward divergence.
Currency. The picture of the USDKZT remains virtually unchanged: quotes remain slightly above the trend line and do not react to rising oil prices today. At the same time, the ruble is declining, which is probably a consequence of the US deal with India.