Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 showed good growth yesterday for the second session in a row, updating historical highs for the 41st time this year. This is the second positive trading session on the eve of the publication of inflation data. Fed minutes showed that Jerome Powell opposed a 50 basis point cut last month, although some policymakers insisted on a more modest quarter-point cut. From the economic news, it is worth noting the growth of wholesale stocks by 0.1% mom in August.Today's inflation report is expected to show restrained price growth in September: the Core CPI will grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis, and the overall CPI by 0.1%.Meanwhile, Category 3 hurricane Milton hit the west coast of Florida with wind speeds of 205 km/h. In Europe, the indices also showed growth, but no new highs were reached. In Asia, the indices of Japan and Korea have been growing moderately since morning, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is adding 2.6%. On Saturday, the Chinese authorities will hold a briefing on fiscal policy. Oil is trading at $76.9 per barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.81 million barrels last week, beating forecasts, according to EIA data. Bloomberg reports that the return of Libyan oil exports is putting pressure on European prices as Mediterranean refineries reduce purchases outside the region. Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds continued to rise and now stands at 4.07%. BlackRock said bond yields are now "closer to fair" after a sharp sell-off in early August. Pimco recommends buying five-year bonds as central banks continue to cut rates. The company expects a further increase in the slope of the US yield curve as budget deficits put pressure on long bond maturities. The KASE. KASE index closed neutrally yesterday, and none of the securities showed price deviations of more than 0.5% at the end of the day. At the moment, the local market is maintaining a local downtrend with a support level of about 5080 points. Index shares. Kazatomprom showed the most noticeable dynamics yesterday. The company's quotes fluctuate by 4% in different directions from session to session in the context of a continuing broad sideways trend. Technically, such a movement can continue for about another month, but we pay attention to the increase in uranium prices. The quotes reached $83.5 per pound, an increase of 5.3% since September 19. Technical indicators also look positive: the downtrend line and the 50-day moving average have been broken. Currency. The dollar's growth is intensifying in the context of the strengthening of the American currency on the world market. It should be noted that on the USDKZT chart, there was an upward breakdown from the ascending channel, which signals the acceleration of the dollar in the local market. The weakening of the tenge often occurs in waves, and the task is to determine the moment when the dollar is overbought through divergences on the USDKZT chart.