Our comments and expectations
External background. The trading session in the US market ended with a 0.5% decline in the S&P 500 index. Among the leading indexes, the technological Nasdaq showed the largest decline. From the reports, it can be noted that Tesla's profit figures are weak, despite record sales of electric vehicles. On the trade wars front, news has emerged that the Trump administration is considering imposing export restrictions against China that would ban the purchase of a wide range of mission-critical software. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has become the second longest in the country's history and, according to market reports, is likely to surpass the 35-day suspension that occurred during Trump's first term. In the European market, the indices showed mixed movement: the British FTSE 100 rose 0.9%, while the German DAX lost 0.7%. In the commodity market, oil finally showed solid growth, rising from $60 on Monday to $64.4 this morning. The trigger was the announcement of US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. It is expected that the oil supplies of these companies to large Indian refineries will decrease to almost zero after the introduction of restrictions. Trump also added that he plans to discuss with Xi Jinping the purchase of Russian oil by China. At the same time, the EIA reported that crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 961,000 barrels last week. Gold fell a little more yesterday, but today it is rising towards $4132. Platinum rose 6.4% on the LSE. China and Hong Kong are rising from the main Asian markets this morning. Futures for the S&P 500 index are adding 0.2%.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield continues to update multi-month lows in anticipation of a rate cut. Yesterday, the indicator dropped to 3.95%.
The KASE index. KASE decreased by 0.5%. The main pressure was exerted by Kazatomprom shares, but most of the other securities in the index were also in negative territory.
Index shares. Kazatomprom dropped another 3.6% yesterday. The difference with the GDR, which lost only 0.4%, is getting smaller and reaches 2%. It is worth noting that the general weakness was felt throughout the market yesterday, which may be related to the airstrikes on Kazakhstan-related energy facilities in Russia. However, KMG itself grew by 1.6% amid a rebound in oil prices. The movement of Air Astana shares can be called interesting, which are again testing, in our opinion, very important resistance levels in the region of 840 tenge. KEGOC shares are falling at the opening today, which may be due to the fixing of the dividend register, however, taking into account the fixing date of October 28, logically, the main sales should occur tomorrow. In contrast, Kazatomprom's shares are rising today, which may be the first sign of buyers returning to sagging securities. On the LSE, meanwhile, GDRs are growing by 3.6%, bouncing off the $50 level. Kaspi has been consolidating for the last few sessions on Nasdaq.
Currency. The USDKZT has been trading unchanged for the third consecutive session. USDRUB is quite volatile today, but there is no further weakening of the ruble at the moment.