Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 closed yesterday with modest gains and once again hit new highs. The main market focus was Powell’s court challenge, which triggered a negative reaction among investors. According to rumors, Scott Bessent informed Trump that the federal investigation into Powell “created disorder” and could negatively affect the markets. Pimco and other major bond market players warned that Trump’s attacks on the Fed’s independence contradict his goal of lowering interest rates. John Williams noted that the current level of rates is “well-prepared” to stabilize the labor market and bring inflation back to the 2% target. In Europe, DAX and Stoxx 600 continue their strong rally. This morning, active growth is observed in the Japanese market: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to announce early elections, which weakened the yen and pushed up stock prices. Growth also continues in commodity markets — oil jumped to $64.3 after Trump announced a 25% tariff on any countries trading with Iran. Additionally, oil stocks at the country’s main export terminal are about one-fifth lower than at the beginning of the year. S&P 500 index futures are currently down 0.1%.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell 0.6% yesterday, as expected. We consider such a pause in growth as a natural stage in market movement, allowing for a short-term breather. This dynamic generally fits within a longer-term upward trend. We expect the sideways consolidation to last several sessions, after which the market will actively test the 7300-point level and likely break through it.
Index stocks. Almost all stocks showed modest declines yesterday, indicating unified market dynamics rather than excessive influence of individual securities. Kazatomprom experienced the largest loss, but shares received support due to LSE gains — GDRs rose 2.4%, reached new highs, and broke resistance levels. Another resistance is at $64.5, but we believe prices can reach $67.3. Sector ETFs also rose, and uranium reached a new high since October 1. At today’s open, Kazatomprom recovers yesterday’s losses, rising 3.2%. The largest decline on foreign exchanges was in Kaspi. ADS prices continue to adjust after testing the descending trend resistance level. At $79.4, a support level is located at the upper boundary of the previous sideways channel. Air Astana GDR closed neutral after three sessions of noticeable decline.
Currency. A steady sideways trend and low-volatility trading continue for USDKZT, which, as noted earlier, differs significantly from the dynamics observed in recent months. Meanwhile, the ruble is weakening from the trend line on the USDRUB chart, and the DXY index stabilizes after yesterday’s decline.