Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.
The S&P 500 declined by 0.7%, continuing a moderate corrective wave that began on May 20. Previously, Donald Trump had threatened to impose aggressive tariffs on European goods and a 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung products, which weighed on the markets. However, over the weekend it was revealed that, after a phone call with Ursula von der Leyen, the U.S. President decided to postpone the introduction of 50% tariffs until July 9. On the other hand, on Friday, Bessent stated that the U.S. could sign “several major” trade agreements in the coming weeks.
This morning, futures on the S&P 500 rose by 1.2%, and futures on the European Stoxx 600 and DAX increased by 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively, after earlier losses of 0.9–1.5%. Today, the U.S. market is closed due to Memorial Day. Among the upcoming economic releases is the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
In Asia, the Hang Seng Index is down 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 1%. Japan has stated its goal to conclude tariff negotiations by the June meeting between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Commodity markets are seeing gains in copper and uranium. Brent is trading at $64.9 per barrel.
Bonds.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries ended Friday at 4.51%. Corporate bonds closed flat.
KASE Index.
The KASE index closed Friday’s session in positive territory despite the continued decline of Kazakhtelecom shares. Today, the upward momentum continues after the market opened.
Index Stocks.
Kazakhtelecom fell by another 14.3%, reducing its weight in the index to 4.07% — now only higher than KazTransOil’s 1.98%. The biggest gainer on Friday was Kazatomprom, with its GDRs rising 3.5%. Notably, uranium ETFs Global X Uranium and Sprott Uranium Miners jumped by an impressive 11.6–12.1%. The trigger was news that on Friday, Donald Trump signed executive orders to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants — including small and still untested designs — to meet the upcoming spike in electricity demand and help the U.S. regain its leadership in nuclear energy.
This morning, KEGOC shares are declining, as today is the shareholder record date under T+2 (actual cut-off date — May 28). Meanwhile, KazTransOil shares are rising, nearing yearly highs, likely due to the upcoming dividend payment (cut-off date — June 3). On Friday, it was reported that shareholders successfully approved dividend payments at the AGM. Another interesting market dynamic is BCC shares, which have once again hit new all-time highs.
Currency.
The USDKZT exchange rate remains near its 50-day moving average. Today, a sloping trendline will also be tested — there are enough factors for both strengthening and weakening of the tenge at the moment, making the direction of the upcoming rebound particularly interesting.