Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, but looking back at recent sessions, the quotes hovered just below 5,730 points. Data showing that business activity in the United States is stable, even despite the slowdown in growth, has given confidence that the world's largest economy can make a soft landing. The PMI in the service sector was at the level of 55.4 points, which was slightly more than the market forecasts of 55.3 points. The manufacturing PMI was 47, which was slightly slower in early September. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said that with inflation approaching the central bank's target, it should focus on the labor market, and "this probably means even more rate cuts next year." Neil Kashkari of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis also pointed to the weakness of the labor market, he supports lowering interest rates by another half percent by the end of the year. In Europe, the quotes showed greater growth than the S&P 500. The DAX and Stoxx 600 rose by 0.4-0.7%. At the same time, weak data showed the PMI of France and Germany, where the eurozone private sector economy contracted for the first time since March. In the morning, the Hong Kong index has been growing very actively, which immediately adds 4.1% at the moment. China has said it plans at least 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) of liquid stock support and will allow brokerage companies to use central bank financing to buy shares. Despite this, there is an opinion among market participants that such growth may soon come to naught, as some fundamental problems plaguing the Chinese economy, including deflationary pressure, remain unresolved.
Bonds. The bond market did not show strong movement. The 10-year yield was 3.738%. Corporate bonds declined slightly and put the rally on pause.
The KASE. KASE index fell by 0.6% yesterday, but today it is growing by 0.3% from the opening. Given that the decline in the previous two sessions offset the growth on September 12-19, and the index reached local lows, growth today would be a logical dynamic for the market.
Index shares. Yesterday, Kaspi decreased by 3.2%, but today it is growing by 3%. Despite the hint of a recovery, current prices are equal to what they were at the close of the session immediately on the first day of the decline. The situation is similar now on the NYSE, where quotes experience a pause and stabilization after a fall, and do not go into instant wagering. Yesterday, Kazatomprom, to our surprise, declined against the market, but today, with the opening of the LSE, quotations are growing by 6% at once. We previously talked about the revival of the nuclear energy market in connection with the commissioning of the Three Mile Island reactor in the United States. Uranium ETFs gained 3-4.5% yesterday. Meanwhile, Air Astana is slowly and uncertainly pushing up its 50-day moving average.
Currency. The dollar has been trading unchanged since morning at the 480 tenge mark. We are inclined to believe that by the end of the year the forecast range of the dollar-tenge exchange rate will be 468-478 tenge. Further strengthening can be expected early next year.