Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. U.S. stock market indexes moved in different directions yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.72%, despite initially declining in futures. The Nasdaq jumped 1.6%, while the industrial Dow Jones lost 0.64%. On the S&P 500 index map, shares in the technology sector—particularly semiconductor and software companies—mostly increased. This led to a full recovery of the tech sector following its decline earlier this year. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical stocks ended in the red. Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman announced that Saudi Arabia would invest $1 trillion in the U.S., up from previously mentioned amounts of $300 to $600 billion. Additionally, Nvidia and AMD will supply chips to the Saudi AI company Humain for large-scale data center construction. Headline and core inflation in the U.S. rose less than expected in April. Moderate prices for clothing and new cars suggest that companies are not yet rushing to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers. The weaker figures strengthened expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. In Europe, major indexes closed flat and are not showing any significant moves in today's futures charts. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 1.9% after falling yesterday. Goldman Sachs and other banks raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth, citing easing trade tensions. Goldman now expects real GDP to reach 4.6% in 2025, up from the previous 4%, while JPMorgan estimates 4.8%. Japan’s Producer Price Index rose by just 0.2% month-over-month in April, below expectations. Oil climbed 2.6% yesterday to $66 per barrel but is losing 0.4% today. S&P 500 futures are showing a modest gain of 0.1%.
Bonds. It was a calm day in the bond market yesterday. Yields changed little, while corporate bonds rose by 0.1–0.2%.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell by 1%, once again failing to hold above the 5700-point level. The decline was driven mainly by Kaspi.kz shares, although Kazatomprom may provide support during today’s session.
Index Stocks. Kazatomprom surged by 4.8% yesterday on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The likely trigger was the announcement of an 85 billion tenge loan agreement with the Development Bank of Kazakhstan to finance a sulfuric acid plant project in Turkistan. The total project cost is estimated at 113 billion tenge, with completion expected in Q1 2027. Sulfuric acid is currently considered a weak point in uranium production due to its shortage. We view this news positively, as it will help reduce production costs. In addition, Air Astana’s GDRs rose by 3.4% on the LSE. Meanwhile, Kazakhtelecom gave back nearly half of its post-dividend recommendation gains. As of this morning, trading in Kaspi shares and other stocks is relatively calm—Kaspi’s shares lost another 3% on Nasdaq yesterday.
Currency. On the currency market, the tenge is strengthening against the U.S. dollar for the third consecutive session. Today, the exchange rate has reached 506 tenge per dollar, which is below the 50-day moving average on the USDKZT chart. The dollar stopped gaining globally yesterday, while oil is nearing resistance levels.