Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq posted the strongest performance among the three major indices, gaining 1.6%. The rise was driven by a statement from Iran’s foreign minister, who said he would travel to Islamabad, although it remains unclear whether he will meet with U.S. officials. Pakistani officials reported that a second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran is expected. Positive momentum in the IT sector was supported by forecasts of record Intel stock sales and news of eased investment restrictions for funds by Taiwan. The U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia announced the termination of the investigation into Jerome Powell and overspending on the Federal Reserve building renovation. The consumer confidence index declined to 49.8 from 53.3 in March amid concerns about inflation. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 indices declined on Friday. In April, Germany’s business outlook deteriorated more than expected, with the Ifo index falling to its lowest level since August 2023. This morning in Asia, markets in Japan and Korea are rising, while China and Hong Kong are trading slightly lower. Oil prices are showing moderate growth, trading at $106.9 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs, oil production in the Persian Gulf countries decreased by 14.5 million barrels per day this month, or 57% below pre-war levels.
KASE Index. On Friday, KASE closed down 0.2%, while today it is up 0.16%, indicating the formation of a new local consolidation phase. Trading volumes increased again and were slightly below the levels observed on April 22.
Index stocks. Most stocks in the local market are moving into a sideways trend — local consolidation is observed in shares of Air Astana, Halyk Bank, Kazatomprom, and KazTransOil. A more prolonged sideways trend persists in BCC and KMG shares. The largest decline on Friday was recorded in Kazakhtelecom shares, which saw elevated trading volumes. Kazatomprom GDRs also showed a significant decline, falling 3.1% on the LSE following a dividend recommendation of 1,292.27 tenge, nearly 40% below our expectations. Overall, this decline is not critical, as prices remain above previously broken resistance levels. However, this correction forms a new strong resistance level around $93 per GDR. On Friday, the National Bank kept the base rate at 18%, noting its readiness to consider a rate cut in upcoming decisions if current trends persist and no new shocks emerge. Suleimenov stated that “all necessary measures” will be taken in Kazakhstan to reduce inflation to single-digit levels. In April, the regulator expects inflation to slow to 10.5% year-on-year. At today’s market open, Kaspi shares show the strongest growth, rising by 1% after three consecutive declining sessions.
Currency. The dollar is retreating again today. At the moment, USDKZT is trading at 462.6 tenge. We believe that following the National Bank’s decision, the tenge may strengthen to the level of 455 per dollar.