Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 started the session with gains, rising by 0.6%. A positive factor at the start was the JOLTS job openings data: according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of job openings on the last working day of April stood at 7.39 million. This is higher than the March figure of 7.2 million and exceeded market expectations of 7.1 million. The data was released amid growing trader concerns about the state of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s desire to see confirmation of labor market stability. The key event on Friday will be the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report for May and the unemployment rate. Economists forecast a gain of 130,000 jobs, which would keep the three-month average at 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 indexes closed flat, while the DAX added 0.7%. In Asia, markets are rising for the third consecutive day: Hang Seng +0.52%, Nikkei 225 +1%, Kospi +2.4%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.07% in early trading. The U.S. has confirmed that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold talks “in the near future.” At the same time, Trump signed a directive to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Oil is trading at $65.4 per barrel, remaining below its 50-day moving average.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.46%. Corporate bonds increased slightly.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose for the second session in a row, bouncing up from the 5,550-point level, which is acting as a local low.
Index Stocks. The growth leader was Kazatomprom, with shares gaining 2.6%, almost fully recovering from the decline seen during the May 28–30 sessions. For reference, the 2025 highs on KASE are around 20,000 KZT, while KZAP shares closed yesterday at 19,100 KZT. Meanwhile, the picture looks more promising on the LSE: GDRs closed slightly above the Fibonacci resistance level ($39.3), without forming a bearish divergence or entering overbought territory, which suggests potential for further growth. Uranium ETFs traded in the U.S. also posted strong performance: Sprott Uranium Miners rose by 5.45%, and Global X Uranium gained 2.7%. Kazakhtelecom shares rose 1.3% yesterday with high trading volume at 809 million KZT. However, this is below the intraday high — prices reached up to 36,500 KZT. A close at the highs would have supported the case for a quick recovery. Kaspi.kz shares rose by 1.2%, though they still show no clear technical signals for either further growth or decline.
Currency. The U.S. dollar weakened against the tenge for the third session in a row. A key moment is approaching — a test of the horizontal resistance levels around 512–513 KZT and the 50-day moving average.