Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq added 1.2%. After the market closed, Intel shares surged by 11% following the announcement that Lip-Bu Tan will become the company’s new CEO. The main positive driver for the market was the inflation data — both headline and core inflation in the U.S. slowed to 0.2% in February compared to the previous month, marking the lowest pace in the past four months and providing good news for the Fed and consumers after months of stagnation. Nearly half of the increase in headline inflation was driven by housing costs. Going forward, investors are awaiting Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which is expected to show a 0.6% rise in February.
Additionally, the market is facing concerns about the new 25% retaliatory tariffs and a possible U.S. government shutdown this Saturday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rebounded from its 50-day moving average based on classical technical signals, while Germany’s DAX rose by 1.6%. Trump announced that a U.S. delegation is heading to Russia to discuss ceasefire terms, and according to media reports, Vladimir Putin is likely to agree to potential peace terms with Ukraine.
In Asia, markets opened in positive territory in the morning but then rolled back, synchronized with S&P 500 futures, which are now showing -0.5%. Oil rebounded confidently and approached the $71 mark. Kazakhstan announced it will soon cut production to compensate for last month’s overproduction above its quota.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose for the second consecutive day to 4.32%. Corporate bonds remained neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index had a calm session, with no further correction development.
Index Stocks. Within the index, the biggest gain was shown by Halyk Bank shares, whose GDRs rose by 3.4% the previous day. The largest decline was recorded in Air Astana shares, which appear to be in a new corrective wave. Kazatomprom grew by 0.9% on the local market, but its GDRs jumped 4.1%. This growth was driven by internal factors rather than uranium prices or the dynamics of industry ETFs like URA and URNM. A likely reason was a new "buy" recommendation from Stifel, setting a target price of $50. Currently, all available Bloomberg recommendations have a "Buy" status, with an average target price of $53.6, indicating strong analyst confidence. Meanwhile, Kaspi ADS dropped back to the levels of February 4.
Currency. Yesterday, the dollar strengthened against the tenge to 491.8. According to Bloomberg, global investors are betting that Donald Trump's attempts to end the war in Ukraine will ultimately lead to Russia’s return to global financial markets. Traders are already showing interest in Russian debt, and Wall Street sales desks are offering ruble-linked derivatives. These prospects are likely partially reflected in the current USDRUB exchange rate, but the news flow remains positive for the ruble and probably for the tenge as well.