Our Comments and Expectations
External Background
The U.S. market was closed yesterday due to Presidents’ Day. Meanwhile, European stocks performed quite well—DAX rose by 1.3%, and Stoxx 600 gained 0.5%. Both indices are at their all-time highs. The primary growth was seen in defense companies' stocks amid expectations of increased military spending, which may push governments to raise borrowing in the coming years. European officials stated that they are working on a large package of measures to boost defense spending, in parallel with the leaders’ meeting in Paris. This morning, Japan and Hong Kong indices are showing modest growth. A more significant increase and a strong rebound are observed in the Korean market—Kospi is up by 0.6% today and has gained 7% since February 3. Yesterday, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma and other major business figures, fueling expectations of greater support for the private sector. Some analysts even view this meeting as a potential signal for the end of years-long pressure on private enterprises. S&P 500 futures are up by 0.3%. Fed official Waller stated that if U.S. inflation continues to behave as it did in 2024, the regulator may return to rate cuts "at some point this year." Oil is trading at $75.4 this morning. OPEC+ delegates said the group is considering postponing production recovery.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is currently trading at 4.511%.
KASE Index
The KASE index closed with a slight decline yesterday. Most stocks showed moderate losses, although trading volumes were above average. Today, the market is opening on a more positive note.
Index Stocks
Yesterday, higher trading volumes were observed in Kazakhtelecom and KazTransOil stocks. The latter declined by 2.2%. It was reported that Ukrainian drones attacked an oil pumping station in Russia operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). According to Bloomberg, Kazakhstan’s main crude oil export pipeline is operating at a slower pace, although the Ministry of Energy stated that Kazakh oil continues to be transported via CPC without restrictions, in normal mode. Kazakhtelecom is showing solid growth this morning, as it was at a local low following the recent downward trend. Kazatomprom GDRs on the LSE also demonstrated notable growth—rising by 2.9%—with a clear attempt to break out of a sideways trend. It was reported that Kazatomprom and Swiss company Axpo Power AG signed the first-ever contract for uranium supply for nuclear power plants in Switzerland.
Currency
The U.S. dollar did not show the expected growth yesterday, but this was only the first trading session following the start of the tax period. However, it is evident that the tenge’s appreciation against the dollar has slowed over the past two trading sessions. USD/KZT is trading at 497.8, the dollar index (DXY) is up 0.15%, while the ruble remains stable at 91.3 per dollar, seemingly waiting for new geopolitical developments.