Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 continues to be held back by the resistance level, which is the July high of the index. Yesterday's trading was quiet, and trading volumes were low. Goldman's Scott Rubner said the S&P 500 could break through resistance and set a record later this week. BNP Paribas expects the Fed to cut rates by at least 75 basis points this year after Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. This means a quarter-point mitigation at each of the three remaining meetings in 2024.Semiconductors declined more than others on the index map –Nvidia lost 2.2%, Broadcom 4%. Orders from U.S. factories for business equipment declined in July, and the previous month's gain was revised downward, suggesting that companies are more cautious about investing. In Europe, the index was closed on a neutral basis while the UK stock exchange was resting on a bank holiday. Asian indices have been showing modest growth since morning. Oil recovered to the levels of August 12-13 and is trading at $81.4 in the morning. The trigger for the increase was the announcement by Libya's eastern rival government (the Government of National Unity) that it would stop all oil production and exports amid a dispute with Tripoli over control of the central bank, which increased market excitement about the Middle East. Exxon, meanwhile, predicts that global oil demand in 2050 will be about the same as the current level, making attempts to achieve zero carbon emissions by the middle of the century unattainable. Uranium fell by 4.1%, but this is only a decrease in August futures, the September contract is still trading above $80.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield rose slightly yesterday to 3.82%.
The KASE index. The KASE index rose by 0.5% yesterday and gave a good hint of the completion of local consolidation and entering a new wave of growth. However, in order to fully realize the potential, quotes need to continue to grow today.
Index shares. The main growth yesterday was seen from the shares of Kazatomprom (after the growth of its GDR) and Kcell, which is at its historical highs. The BCC has also grown, but the securities schedule has not changed in any way. All our GDRs were not traded yesterday, so today we will probably see a slight decrease in the local market for these securities. Adskaspis declined by 0.8% against the backdrop of a sluggish US market.
Currency. The dollar is declining for the second session in a row after breaking through the level of 480 tenge on Friday. Yesterday, important news came out that Kazakhstan plans to increase transfers from its National Fund budget to 5.5 trillion tenge next year, which means slightly more than $900 million in sales per month (at the rate of 480 per dollar). This is a fairly large figure, especially considering that the purchase of foreign currency by the UAPF may be completed in the coming months, which will increase net sales.