Our Comments and Expectations
External backdrop. Trading in the S&P 500 opened lower amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East; however, the index recovered part of its losses in the second half of the session. The main pressure was observed in the financials, industrials, healthcare, and consumer sectors. Today investors are awaiting labor market data, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring last month after strong figures in January, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain stable. Yesterday’s report on initial jobless claims showed stabilization at 213K, compared with expectations of 215K. Michelle Bowman from the Federal Reserve stated that the labor market is showing increasing signs of stabilization, suggesting that she may support keeping interest rates unchanged. One of the main issues for the U.S. currently is the rise in oil prices and worsening inflation expectations. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated that the Trump administration is considering several options to address the sharp rise in oil and gasoline prices. Following these comments, oil prices briefly paused their growth, but as of the morning of March 6, they continued to rise to $85.1 per barrel of Brent. It was also reported that the U.S. issued a license allowing India to purchase part of Russia’s oil. Meanwhile, Bessent is considering asking China to buy less Russian and Iranian oil and more from the United States. In Europe yesterday, indices declined more sharply than in the U.S. In Asia this morning, indices are mostly showing modest gains, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posting the strongest increase — up 1.5% at the moment. S&P 500 futures are rising by 0.2%. Oil prices today are updating their highest level since July 2024, trading at $85.4.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE index declined by 0.3%, marking the second consecutive session of losses after forming a reversal candle on the daily chart on Tuesday. It is worth noting that the quotations remained above the January 29 level, which can be considered a support level, despite briefly dipping below it during yesterday’s session. Today, at the market open, the index is rising by 0.3%, signaling stabilization in the dynamics.
Index stocks. As expected, KazMunayGas shares showed the strongest growth yesterday. Currently, the quotations benefit slightly more from rising oil prices than they suffer from the strengthening of the tenge. The biggest decline was recorded in Kaspi shares; however, judging by yesterday’s results on Nasdaq, the stock is up 2.1% and improving its technical position, as it remains above support levels. Air Astana shares are also declining, as higher oil prices put pressure on the stock. Yesterday, Halyk Bank GDRs rose on the LSE. This is not a new buy signal but rather a stabilization of prices after a recent spike in volatility. Kazatomprom is also stabilizing after attempting to break below support levels during the previous session. At today’s open, the strongest gains are shown by Kaspi (+1.5%) and KazTransOil (+1.8%).
Currency. Yesterday the dollar fell to 492 tenge. Today the U.S. currency is rising and may be attempting to gather strength for another move against the national currency.