Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 opened in negative territory yesterday but later managed to post gains, closing up 0.4%. The focus was on macroeconomic data — the U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly declined by 0.5% in April, marking the largest drop in five years and largely reflecting shrinking producer margins. Factory output declined for the first time in six months, while retail sales barely grew, indicating some reduction in consumer spending. JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that a recession remains a possibility as the impact of tariffs continues to affect the global economy. Jerome Powell noted that policymakers are considering revising the framework governing monetary policy decisions — including the approach to U.S. labor market shortages and the inflation target. Wells Fargo released a new forecast for the S&P 500 index, expecting it to reach 6,400–6,600 points by the end of 2026. The forecast for the end of 2025 is 5,900–6,100 points. In Europe, indices rose by 0.6–0.7%, and futures point to an additional increase of 0.3–0.4%. The UK economy posted its strongest quarterly growth in a year, expanding by 0.7% in the first three months of 2025. The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3%, slightly below the initial report. In Asia, major indices are trading flat this morning. Oil fell to $64.2 after Donald Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields retreated from three-month highs following the release of economic data. Corporate bonds posted gains of 0.2–0.3%.
KASE Index. The KASE Index declined for a third consecutive session, though at a slow pace. Breaking through the resistance level of 5,700 points is currently being delayed.
Index Stocks. Shares of Air Astana and BCC declined by 1–1.1% yesterday. Notably, AIRA may be concluding its local upward wave after seven consecutive positive sessions. BCC remains in a sideways consolidation phase. The biggest gainer was Kazakhtelecom, rising 1.3%. We are seeing a flood of client questions regarding dividend-driven purchases, and we believe this may turn into a “break-even trade,” as shares could drop by the amount of the dividend after the record date. In addition, we analyzed Kaspi.kz’s latest report, which triggered a 6–7% decline in the stock. The results can be characterized as moderately negative — reflecting a quarterly drop in net profit and weaker management guidance for 2025. However, we saw limited impact from the inclusion of Hepsiburada’s metrics in the report and slightly improved our forecasts for interest income and the loan portfolio. As a result, our recommendation for the stock remains “Buy,” though we have lowered the target price from $126 to $104 per ADS.
Currency. The dollar rose to 510 tenge yesterday. This morning, no major changes have been observed — USDKZT remains slightly above its 50-day moving average.