Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 is down for the first time after 8 consecutive growth sessions. Bloomberg reports that it was the longest series in the last 20 years. According to Citigroup, almost $16 billion in new long bets were added to S&P 500 futures last week alone. Nevertheless, yesterday's decline turned out to be not critical, the quotes lost only 0.2%, which is explained by their proximity to historical highs, which are also the resistance level. Today, the focus will be on the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which may show that officials did not make a decision to cut rates during the July meeting, but a later weak employment report probably changed the mind. In Europe, the index has declined in a very similar manner to the S&P 500. The losses of the Stoxx600 and DAX were higher than those of the overseas “colleague”, and the British FTSE 100 was the leader of the decline with a result of -1%. In Asia today, the central trade indices show Japan and Korea. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down 1%, having failed to break through its 50-day moving average. Oil continued to decline and reached $77 per barrel of Brent. Hamas has said it is seeking a cease-fire agreement with Israel and denies that it is dragging on. Iran has said it may take a "long" time to avenge the assassination of a Hamas leader on its territory. DNB (the largest financial group in Norway) predicts that next year the price of Brent may fall to $60-70 per barrel.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield fell to 3.81%.At the same time, the quotes still remain in local consolidation.
The KASE index. The index closed neutrally yesterday, slowing down the momentum of the local rally. We assume that a large overshoot is harmful to the market, especially if it occurs after the breakdown of important resistance levels.
Index shares. Kazmunaigas was among the growth leaders yesterday, which has been showing very confident movement in recent sessions. Today, since the opening, the quotes have overcome the mark of 14,000 tenge and are at their historical highs. The shares of BCC and Kaztransoil also increased, but this did not have a big impact on the quotes. The report of the National Bank turned out to be moderately positive.Quarterly interest income and net profit rose to record levels. The loan portfolio showed significant growth in the second quarter. Nevertheless, there is a slight increase in the cost of credit losses, as well as a decrease in commission income. Management has maintained its own forecasts for 2024 at the same level. As a result, we slightly lowered the target price to 265 tenge, which gives about 23% of the potential for growth. On the NYSE, the Caspi heads were lowered after the test of its 50-day moving average. On LSEAIRA, it lost 3.2% and shows correction after the last wave of growth.
Currency. The dollar fell to 475.3tenge yesterday, which may be the result of the tax season of the dollar index decrease DXY. Today, the average is slightly weakening to 475.7.