Our Comments and Expectations
External background. The S&P 500 started in negative territory yesterday but ended the day up by 0.55%. The index closed the first quarter with a result of -4.6%, making it the worst performer compared to the rest of the world since 2009. On the index map, gains were seen in banking, defensive, and energy sector stocks. Goldman lowered its target for the S&P 500 for the second time this month and now expects the benchmark to finish the year around 5700. Trump stated that reciprocal tariffs would be announced Tuesday evening or Wednesday, but traders remain concerned due to mixed signals from his administration about which specific new tariffs will be introduced. New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is a risk of higher inflation this year, although his baseline scenario assumes it will remain relatively stable. Barkin, on the other hand, said the U.S. central bank should be confident in sustained inflation decline before cutting rates again. Investors are now awaiting the JOLTS job openings data, which may show a slight decline in February. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March is also expected to return to contraction territory. The European Stoxx 600 deepened its correction, and the DAX broke below its 50-day moving average. Investors are looking forward to inflation data from the eurozone, which is expected to show a slowdown. In Asia, morning trading was moderate; only the Korean market showed solid growth. Oil is trading near $75 per barrel this morning amid reports of possible new sanctions on Russian oil, despite OPEC+ plans to gradually restore previously halted production.
Bonds. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries continues to decline amid a risk-off sentiment in the market.
KASE Index. Yesterday, the KASE attempted but failed to break out upward from the local sideways channel. Nevertheless, the fact that the market remains stable despite external volatility is already a decent result.
Index stocks. KazMunayGas shares showed the strongest growth yesterday, likely linked to rising oil prices. As we mentioned yesterday, the earnings report was neutral and apparently wasn’t the trigger for the rally. On the LSE and Nasdaq, all of our stocks declined, although Halyk Bank showed the smallest losses. Kazatomprom lost another 2.7% and remains within a downward trend. According to TradeTech, U.S. utility companies have halved their uranium purchases, and reactor operators are postponing new contracts while waiting to see how Trump’s tariffs will affect the market. On the local exchange, Halyk Bank continues its dividend rally, and increased trading volumes show strong investor interest in the stock.
Currency. The dollar is trading mostly unchanged today at 503.6 tenge. The National Bank reports that it plans to sell $950 million to $1.05 billion of foreign currency from the National Fund in April. Additionally, the regulator will sell $423 million to mirror dollar purchases and will buy $250 million for the UAPF (Unified Accumulative Pension Fund).