Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose to new all-time highs but then reversed, leaving a shadow on the daily candlestick. Bond yields dropped sharply, although there were no clear triggers in the news flow. Most likely, renewed trade concerns were the main pressure factor. On the index map, the communication services sector showed the highest growth — including Google, Meta, and mobile providers. This week’s focus is on the peak of earnings season, with Tesla and Google set to report on Wednesday. According to Christopher Harvey from Wells Fargo Securities, the S&P 500 is expected to see double-digit growth in the second half of the year, supported by the ongoing strength of U.S. tech giants. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that positive operating leverage and tax savings remain underestimated tailwinds for U.S. equities. In trade-related news, press secretary Leavitt stated that Trump may issue additional unilateral tariff letters by August 1. She added that new trade deals may also be reached before the deadline. In Europe, market dynamics were mostly neutral, with the UK’s FTSE 100 standing out as it reached new all-time highs. In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is rising this morning, while South Korea’s Kospi is declining. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is showing volatility amid domestic political uncertainty. Oil prices are down again, currently at $68.6 per barrel, marking the third consecutive negative session. S&P 500 futures are neutral.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply for the second session in a row, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets. Corporate bonds also gained in value.
KASE Index. The KASE index continues to grow, entering a new upward streak that has now lasted three trading sessions.
Index stocks KazMunayGas led the index higher with a 3.5% gain. Interestingly, we did not observe any news that could explain this growth, especially considering the stock rose another 2.15% at today’s market open. Yesterday, KMGZ shares reached our target price of 17,900 tenge, marking a 22% increase since June 4.
Kcell declined by 1.3% yesterday but opened today with a sharp rise of 13.3%. Kaspi is also supporting the market today, up 2.4%. As a result, with 8 out of 10 stocks providing support, the KASE index is currently up 0.9%, continuing its rally. On international markets, Kaspi’s ADS shares showed up to 4.6% growth yesterday, although a mid-session reversal in the U.S. market impacted fintech stocks as well. Nevertheless, Kaspi continues to benefit from breaking key resistance levels.
Currency. The dollar is rising after yesterday’s decline against the tenge. At the moment, USDKZT is trading at 531.7. We see a possible sideways trend forming, with consolidation around the 530 tenge per dollar level.