Our comments and expectations
External backdrop. The S&P 500 rose for a second consecutive session, once again reaching new all-time highs. Friday’s rally was driven by signs of strengthening in the labor market, reinforcing expectations that the world’s largest economy remains resilient despite the energy shock caused by the conflict with Iran. In April, U.S. employers added 115,000 jobs versus expectations of 62,000. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase and the first sustained rise in nearly a year. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%. According to Bloomberg, around 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeded first-quarter earnings expectations, while profit growth continues to support equity valuations. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran remain divided over a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described Tehran’s response to the proposed peace plan as “completely unacceptable.” In response, Iran deployed deep-sea submarines in the strait as an “invisible guardian.” After declining on Friday, oil prices rebounded, with crude trading around $105.5 this morning. European indices declined, while the DAX lost 1.3%. According to a Bloomberg survey, the ECB may raise interest rates twice in 2026 amid accelerating inflation — by 25 basis points in June and September. Asian markets are showing moderately negative sentiment this morning, with South Korea’s Kospi posting the sharpest decline at 1.7%. Futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.23%.
KASE Index. The KASE Index declined on Friday, falling to its lowest level since April 15. Broadly, the index remains in a downward phase within a wider sideways trend. At today’s opening, quotes dropped below the 7,750-point support level.
Index stocks. KazTransOil shares posted the strongest gain on Friday. The stock remains the only constituent in the KASE Index maintaining an uninterrupted growth streak — currently five consecutive sessions excluding today’s gains. On AIX, Solidcore shares also continue to attract attention with their prolonged rally. On Friday, they gained another 2.65%, reaching $8.51. The biggest decline was recorded in Kazatomprom shares, which lost 3.1% on the local market, although its GDRs on the LSE rose 1.3% over two sessions. Around $77.5, the GDRs found support, similar to local shares finding support near 37,500 tenge. At the same time, the uranium sector demonstrated fairly confident growth yesterday. Halyk Bank GDRs fell 2.4% and dropped below the $33 support level, which is considered a locally negative technical signal. At today’s open, HSBK is down 1.4%, while Kazatomprom is losing 1.6%. KazTransOil continues to rise, adding another 1.6%.
Currency. The dollar is not declining today, but it is also not showing sufficiently strong growth to change the technical picture. USDKZT is testing a downward trendline and trading around 463.5 tenge.