Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 gained another 0.8% yesterday, marking its third consecutive session of growth. The index also reached new all-time highs for the first time since January 27, fully recovering the positions lost since the beginning of the military conflict with Iran. This suggests that investors have taken optimistic positions, assuming that the conflict has effectively ended. Technology and financial sectors led the gains, while industrial and healthcare companies declined. According to Bloomberg, citing a source familiar with the situation, the United States and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire, which expires on Tuesday, for another two weeks to allow more time for peace negotiations. Meanwhile, banks reported strong results: traders at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America posted record results in the first quarter. In Europe, major indices showed more modest dynamics, declining by up to 0.5%. This morning, Asian markets show positive sentiment — the Nikkei 225 and Kospi are up by 2.2–2.4%. Futures for the S&P 500, DAX, and Stoxx 600 indices are currently rising by 0.2–0.3%. Oil is trading at $95.7 per barrel.
KASE Index. The KASE index rose by a modest 0.3% yesterday, but gained another 0.4% at the opening today, confirming the market’s breakout from a local consolidation. However, there is another important resistance level ahead at 7,900 points, which has already been unsuccessfully tested twice.
Index stocks. On the local market yesterday, Kaspi shares showed the strongest growth, rising by 2.7%. The quotes largely mirrored the jump in ADS on Nasdaq, which, however, closed neutral yesterday. On the LSE, Kazatomprom shares surged by 8%. We did not find a specific news trigger for such a move, although reports suggested that the company’s shareholders approved a deal with India worth KZT 2 trillion — a long-term contract for the purchase and sale of natural uranium concentrates. Nevertheless, this growth was not enough for the GDRs to break the key resistance level at $87 per share. Halyk Bank GDRs rose by 1.2% and maintained positions above support levels, which is important for the technical outlook. At today’s market open, almost all stocks are rising, except for neutral KEGOC and a slight decline in HSBK. Kazatomprom is the clear leader with a gain of +3.8%. KazTransOil announced a recommended dividend of KZT 118 per share, which looks attractive and implies about a 10% dividend yield based on yesterday’s closing price.
Currency. The tenge strengthened today to 470 per dollar. If this level is broken, the chances of a local sideways trend will sharply decrease, while the probability of a retest of the lows near 464 tenge will increase.