Our Comments and Expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 ended Friday’s session flat, although overall May turned out to be quite successful for the index. Trump stated that China had "broken its agreement" with the U.S., but later added he hopes to speak with Xi Jinping. China responded by accusing the U.S. and promising retaliatory measures. In addition, Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, claiming the move would protect American workers and support the expected deal between Nippon Steel and US Steel. The core PCE index rose a modest 0.1%, while consumer spending growth slowed. U.S. goods exports fell by a record 19.8% in April compared to the previous month. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved at the end of May, with the University of Michigan index rising to 52.2 from 50.8 at the beginning of the month—one of the lowest levels in its history. In Europe, indices also closed near neutral levels. As of writing, futures indicate a 0.3–0.5% drop, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%. According to a Bloomberg survey, the ECB is expected to cut rates twice this year, although respondents caution against long intervals between decisions. In Asia, the Hang Seng is down 1% this morning, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 is down 1.3%. China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 as expected. Oil is trading at $64.3 per barrel this morning. OPEC+ reportedly agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, consistent with increases in the previous two months.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.4%. Corporate bonds ended the session neutral.
KASE Index. The KASE index fell 0.5% on Friday, marking the third consecutive correction session. Prices reached lows not seen since May 22, though a slight revival from buyers was observed at this morning’s open.
Index Stocks. On Friday, KazTransOil shares fell 9% due to the dividend cutoff. Notably, the stock reclaimed third place in the index by dividend yield, recovering from the loss of its dividend aristocrat status in 2022. We updated our valuation of KZTO after the Q1 report, slightly lowering the target price to 1,040 tenge from 1,060. Overall, KazTransOil's financial report can be considered moderately negative: quarterly revenue rose slightly but declined compared to the previous quarter due to lower oil transportation volumes. In addition, margins fell due to faster growth in cost of goods sold and administrative expenses. On Friday, Kazakhtelecom shares led gains, while today BCC shares are up. However, the CCBN chart shows a forming bearish divergence. On the LSE, Air Astana GDRs are recovering, and Kazatomprom depositary receipts remain firm.
Currency. The dollar is rising against the tenge for the second straight session, returning to 511.9 this morning. Judging by the last two weeks, USDKZT is forming a sideways consolidation. Morgan Stanley stated that the dollar could drop by 9% globally over the next year.