External Background: During most of the session, the S&P 500 showed a decline, as the latest Fed minutes indicated that officials are still in no hurry to lower rates, with a significant portion even questioning whether the policy is sufficiently restrictive. Some expressed a readiness to tighten measures if necessary. Nvidia's earnings report after the market close was successful, and the company provided another optimistic sales forecast. Revenue in the first quarter also exceeded expectations. Additionally, Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split, meaning shareholders will receive 9 additional shares for each share they hold as of June 6. Quarterly dividends were increased by 150% to 10 cents per share, and in after-hours trading, the stock prices surged by 6%. Other tech sector stocks related to the AI boom were also encouraged by Nvidia's success and showed gains. European index quotes decreased by 0.25-0.55%, but this morning, Stoxx 600 futures are up by 0.25%. In Asia, the Hang Seng index is down nearly 2%. Indices in Japan and Korea are rising in response to Nvidia's report. Futures on the S&P 500 index are up by 0.56%. Commodity prices are actively declining, with copper falling by 5% after a recent strong rally. Oil has dropped after a brief consolidation. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.83 million barrels last week, according to EIA data.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds modestly increased yesterday, still testing the resistance of the 50-day moving average.
KASE Index: KASE closed neutrally yesterday and was unable to update historical data, although some stocks showed increased volatility.
Index Stocks: Kaztransoil's shares unexpectedly rose by 3.9%, reaching highs not seen since October 2023. This momentum immediately breaks the prolonged sideways trend, but given the fleeting nature of such spikes in KZTO's shares, it's difficult to say whether this is a reliable technical signal for further growth. Nevertheless, speculative investors may consider buying. BCC's shares also rose by 2.4%. Today, we released a valuation of the company with a "Hold" recommendation. The bank continued to improve its key financial metrics. Quarterly interest income reached a new record, as did net profit. However, the growth of the loan portfolio significantly slowed in the first quarter. While we have raised the target price to 1,820 tenge and assess the report as moderately positive, the already high stock price does not allow us to recommend purchasing them in the medium term. Nonetheless, the shares may still be locally interesting. The valuation for Halyk Bank shares remains at 270 tenge.
Currency: The USD/KZT is trading around 442-443 tenge today, which does not significantly alter the technical picture.
Key Market News:
(=) National Bank of Kazakhstan: Inflationary risks remain in Kazakhstan — National Bank of RK.