External background. Yesterday, the S&P 500 regained some of the losses it suffered a day earlier. The index rose 0.9%, while the NASDAQ jumped 1.5%, showing the dominance of the technology sector during the session. Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States amounted to 208 thousand against an estimate of 212 thousand and 207 thousand a week earlier. The central event today will be the unemployment report. Median forecasts expect employment to remain high - the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector will grow by 240,000 in April, compared with a sharp increase of 303,000 a month earlier. Bloomberg is more skeptical, predicting 200,000 new jobs and an increase in unemployment to 3.9%. The options market is betting that stocks will fluctuate greatly after the data is released. From the news reports, Apple can be noted, which jumped 6% after the end of trading due to stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and the forecast of a return to growth in the current period. The company also increased its dividends. In Asian markets, Hong Kong's Hang Seng continues its rally in the morning – the index is growing by 1.5% today and by 13.8% since April 19.
Bonds. US 10-year yields declined yesterday, and corporate bond prices continued to rise. Traders in the market have suggested that the Fed will cut the rate by November ahead of the US employment report.
The KASE index. The growth of the KASE index accelerated yesterday, calling into question our skeptical views on retesting or updating new historical peaks, to which about 1.6% of the growth margin remained. We believe that the highs of early April will become a serious level of resistance for the market, given the approaching cut-offs on dividends.
Index shares. Yesterday, Air Astana became the growth leader again. In the last review, we spoke about the absence of a breakdown of the downward trend line, but it was carried out on the same day. This gives us a medium-term signal for a larger recovery. To date, the securities have about 23% of the margin to grow to the highs (at closing) that were delivered after the IPO. Kcell took the second place in terms of growth, rising by 3.1%. However, such a jump did not allow the securities to get out of the protracted sideways trend. Kazakhtelecom shares are falling today with the opening, which is probably due to the fixation of the register of shareholders for the payment of dividends. Information about the results of the AGM has not yet appeared in open sources. Since the Day of the Issuer, it became known that the company planned to allocate 23.1 billion tenge for payments, which corresponds to 2096.6 tenge or 31% less than last year's amount.
Currency. The dollar rose to 443.7 tenge after yesterday's publication of plans for reduced volumes of currency sales. In the local perspective, the chances of reaching 439 tenge are decreasing. It is worth noting that according to our main forecast, the target price was at around 441 and was reached, and we noted 439 as a possible extreme for the dollar.
Key market news
(=) KZTK: Kazakhtelecom may sell its stake in Kcell to a private
(=) KEGC: Shareholders of KEGOC JSC have decided to pay dividends for 2023