Our Comments and Expectations
External background. Yesterday, the U.S. market experienced a wave of sell-offs in the technology sector. Toward the end of the session, the market received support from dovish comments by Fed member Austan Goolsbee, who stated that he expects steady economic growth in 2026 and believes interest rates could decline further if inflation approaches 2%. Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller also signaled his support for further interest rate cuts.
After the session closed, Micron Technology issued an optimistic outlook, slightly stabilizing futures, which are up 0.12% today.
In Europe, the DAX index posted the largest decline, appearing weaker than other major continental benchmarks. Business confidence in Germany fell more sharply than expected in December — the Ifo index dropped to 89.7 from a revised 90.5 in November.
In Asia, markets are trading lower this morning, with the sharpest declines seen in Japan and Korea.
Commodities posted a broad-based rally: oil rose slightly above $60 after Trump imposed a blockade on tankers from Venezuela and amid reports of potential new sanctions against Russia if Putin rejects a peace agreement with Ukraine.
KASE Index. KASE continued to correct after its recent rally. The external environment remains moderately negative; however, there are signs that the pace of the market’s decline may slow in the coming sessions.
Index stocks. The main drivers of market activity were three volatile stocks — Kazatomprom, Air Astana, and KazTransOil. Air Astana recorded the largest decline, which was largely expected given the announced SPO. What came as a surprise was the speed of execution: on the same day, it was reported that BAE Systems sold a 10.1% stake at $5.8 per GDR. Given such a rapid transfer of shares, yesterday’s drop appears excessive, similar to what was observed during the SPO of Halyk Bank. Moreover, the swift book-building process may indicate strong demand for the shares.
This morning, news emerged of a forced landing of the company’s aircraft in Delhi due to suspected engine issues. This development could have a more fundamental impact on the stock price, as Air Astana has previously faced problems with defective Pratt & Whitney engines.
Kazatomprom shares fell by 4.2%, while its GDRs declined by 3.8%, likely amid sell-offs in AI-related technology stocks. However, an interesting divergence is evident: uranium prices have been rising since December 5, while GDR prices have moved in the opposite direction. If uranium futures continue to rise, GDRs may follow with a delay. In this case, the impact on the local market would be more limited due to the accumulated price gap in favor of common shares.
Meanwhile, KazTransOil continues to rise, despite frequent intraday signals of a potential reversal in most recent sessions.
Currency. The tenge’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar continued and proved to be more moderate, as we had anticipated in our previous review. This morning, USDKZT is trading at 513.3 tenge. The ruble weakened yesterday and returned to levels above 80 per dollar. A noteworthy point was Suleimenov’s statement that the widening current account deficit and pressure on the balance of payments are increasing pressure on the tenge as well.