External Background: The S&P 500 had a neutral session following the long weekend. During the trading day, prices declined after noon but then regained losses closer to the end of the session. One of the main negative triggers was the rise in U.S. government bond yields due to a weak auction of five-year securities. Additionally, U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly increased in May to 102 points, with expectations set at 95.9 points. The negative impact of this news was amplified by the fact that the increase occurred just before the release of data on the PCE deflator, also known as the personal consumption expenditures index, which is a favored indicator for the Federal Reserve in making monetary policy decisions. Among the regulator's members, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari spoke yesterday, stating that policy remains restrictive, but officials do not entirely rule out additional rate hikes. However, the market did not significantly react to his comments. In Europe, indices were in the red, particularly the British FTSE 100, which has declined for the fifth consecutive session. Asian markets are also showing negative trends this morning, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng and South Korean Kospi losing over 1.6% today. Commodity prices performed well yesterday, with oil recovering to a resistance level just below $85, and copper rising after three unsuccessful sessions.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose yesterday to 4.54%, bouncing off the 50-day moving average, which creates a negative effect on the technical outlook.
KASE Index: KASE closed neutrally yesterday. Consolidation of quotes continues below the resistance level, which is currently the historical highs just above the 5100-point mark.
Index Stocks: There was no significant volatility in individual stocks yesterday, which is a positive sign as it indicates stabilization after the fluctuations in dividend stocks. The focus remains on KazTransOil, and as mentioned earlier, we do not expect a significant impact on the index due to its small share. Among the stocks that seem interesting at the moment is Kaspi, which rose by 1.8% on the NYSE yesterday and broke through the resistance level of $123. Recently, a similar resistance was broken by Kazatomprom, but it was volatile due to dividends in the last few sessions. Today, at the opening, the KASE index is neutral again, with KazTransOil and Kaspi rising by 0.6%.
Currency: The dollar is trading at 442.4 tenge today, not significantly different from yesterday's closing price. The Russian ruble has strengthened below the 90 mark against the dollar.
Key Market News
(=) AIRA: Air Astana has repurchased its shares and GDRs for an additional $315.9 thousand.
(=) KZAP: Kazatomprom JSC reported financial results for the first quarter of 2024.