External background. The S&P 500 rose by another 0.25% and again updated historical highs. A bright event yesterday was the rise in shares of semiconductor manufacturers, as a result of which Nvidia became the most expensive company in the world for the first time in its history. At the same time, the optimistic forecast of analysts suggests that the value of the company, which is at the very center of the artificial intelligence boom, will reach almost $5 trillion next year — from $3.3 trillion now. The macroeconomic data came out mixed. Thus, retail sales practically did not grow, showing signs of weakness in consumer strength. On the other hand, industrial production exceeded all forecasts for broad-based factory growth. The Hong Kong Hang Seng is growing briskly in Asian markets today and is starting from its 50-day average, which it tested a couple of sessions. Oil also breaks through the 50-day average and reaches $85 per barrel of Brent.
Bonds. The US 10-year yield is back in the red after two consecutive growth sessions.
The KASE index. The index rose 0.5% yesterday. Overall, the trading session went well, as individual stocks were still able to show something new against the background of the summer stagnation of the market.
Index shares. KMG shares gained almost 1% against the background of rising oil prices and weakening tenge, giving a hint that the quotes may show local growth and reach the level of 13 thousand tenge again. Kaspi had a slightly smaller increase, but the paper was able to show strength and continued to recover after a decline on April 9-10. On the NYSE, the picture was slightly less positive, because although the quotes reached their highs on April 8, they could not gain a foothold there. It became known that the sale amount of Tele2/Altel amounted to about $1-1.1 billion, which is even more than the current capitalization of Kazakhtelecom ($821 million).
Currency. The tenge exchange rate was in the spotlight yesterday. The USDKZT grew for three consecutive sessions and yesterday reached the highest rate of tenge decline in a long time. Today, the exchange rate is making its way to our next target of 460 tenge. However, we believe that the dollar will face serious resistance in the range of 460-470. There are some signs that the decrease in the volume of currency sales from the National Fund is the actions of the regulator aimed at limiting the further strengthening of the tenge and putting it into a more balanced track. This was also mentioned by Bank of America in a recent recommendation on carry trading in tenge. We looked at the assets under management of the UAPF and saw that the foreign exchange share in the portfolio has almost reached the level of 30%, so the National Bank may sharply limit or completely remove purchases of the dollar in favor of the UAPF if the exchange rate of the national currency begins to decline too quickly. This may lead to the fact that the volume of net dollar sales by the National Bank in July will increase by 200-400 million USD and shift the balance of supply and demand. In addition, do not forget that the country's budget was set at the rate of 460-470 tenge per dollar and we believe that the 470 mark may become high enough for the National Bank to intervene in the situation through indirect intervention.
Key market news
(+) KZTK: Kazakhtelecom to receive $1.1 billion for Tele2 and Altel operators