Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 declined at the beginning of the session yesterday, but then was able to recoup some of the losses and closed down 0.2%. The industrial Dow Jones lost more, 0.7%. Negative trends came from the bond market and were a continuation of the sharp rise in US government bond yields the day before yesterday due to strong labor market data and rising consumer confidence. Powell separately confirmed that policymakers are likely to wait after March to lower rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said officials have time to assess incoming data before easing policy, while his Chicago counterpart, Ostan Goolsby, confirmed that he would like to see more favorable inflation data. The ISM index of business activity in the US services sector rose to 53.4 points in January, compared with a revised 50.5 points in December. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 has been slowly declining for several consecutive sessions. DAX starts testing the 50-day moving average. The Chinese market is booming in Asia after the Chinese authorities stepped up measures to save the economy. In particular, the commitment of the National Welfare Fund to further increase the share of exchange-traded funds also supported market sentiment. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is currently adding 3.75%, and the mainland CSI 300 is 2.8%. Oil stopped falling yesterday and is now anchored just above the $78 mark per barrel of Brent.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US government bonds has been rising markedly for the second session in a row and has already returned to levels on January 19-26. As a result of the current growth, the indicator broke through the 50-day moving average. Corporate bonds have also sunk in price, the emerging market bond ETF has broken through the 50-day average, but is still holding above the most important local support levels.
The KASE index. It seems that the rebound of the KASE index, which consisted of three sessions of continuous growth, began to encounter resistance from sellers. The main pressure yesterday came from Kazatomprom, which offset the growth of other securities.
Index shares. KZAP lost 2.3% on KASE yesterday and 4% on LSE at once. The entire uranium sector showed weakness yesterday, correcting after recent growth. Uranium has lost about 1%, which is not much, but the current futures picture may begin to build a triangle in a neutral scenario and a double top in a negative one. Kaspi is located near the lower boundary of the extensive side channel and cannot yet find the strength to rebound. The People's Bank is growing well on the LSE, but there is still strong resistance just above $15, which has been keeping quotes from further growth since July 2023.
Currency. The dollar has broken through the 50-day average, which indicates the beginning of a new uptrend. However, we would still like to draw attention to the 455 tenge mark, where the Fibonacci level passes. We believe that the vector of further movement will depend on the breakdown of this level. Today, USDKZT quotes are neutral and do not show dollar growth.
Key market news
(=) KZAP: Kazatomprom increased the shipment of uranium bypassing Russia, but did not reach the plan