Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 showed a 0.2% decline after two sessions of growth. The semiconductor manufacturing subsector grew on the index map, while the healthcare and energy sectors declined amid lower oil prices. Markets continue to discuss Fed rates a week after they were cut by half a point. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, unlike Michelle Bowman, said that she "strongly supported" a 0.5% decline at the last meeting of the financial regulator. Among the individual stocks, Nvidia grew by 2.2% and AMD by 2.3%. Tesla gained 1.1% on the back of rising sales forecasts for electric vehicles. At least four analysts have raised their estimates of Tesla's third-quarter supply figures, which are due to be released next week. In Europe, the leading indexes also showed a moderate decline. The regional deterioration in the economic outlook has fueled expectations that the ECB will cut rates again next month, while HSBC economists predict that policymakers will start cutting interest rates at each meeting from October to April. In Asia, a powerful rally of Chinese indices continues this morning – Hong Kong's Hang Seng is growing by 3.6%, and the mainland CSI 300, which is usually more modest than the Hang Seng, is adding 3%. At the same time, Japan's Nikkei 225 is also trying to keep up, showing an increase of 2.8%. Oil is declining on signs that supply disruptions from Libya may ease. In addition, according to Financial Times reports, Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon the target of $ 100 for oil in order to regain market share.
Bonds. The yield on 10-year US bonds rose slightly yesterday to 3.79%. Corporate bonds continue to pause after the rally on September 11-19.
The KASE. KASE index was much less volatile yesterday than the day before. The securities of BCC and KMG, which showed sharp price drawdowns, recovered, and therefore the market regained its price balance.
Index shares. Kazmunaigas grew 2.2%, and in general, it is only slightly below the closing prices on September 23. Another thing is that at the moment the quotes are in a sideways trend starting from August 22. Kaspi and Kazatomprom, which were among the growth leaders the day before, became the leaders of the decline yesterday. At the same time, there was no decrease on the LSE and Nasdaq from these two securities, and ADS Kaspi even managed to grow by 1.7%. The price difference between ADS and common shares on KASE decreased to 14.8%. The decline in the LSE was shown yesterday by the People's Bank, which remains in a sideways trend. As for Air Astana, here we did not see a breakdown of the 50-day moving average, which indicates that the technical signal for the start of a broader growth was postponed again.
Currency. The tenge on the USDKZT chart is at the lower boundary of the growing (for the dollar) channel and continues to test the resistance of the 50-day moving average. In case of its breakdown, there is a local reserve of tenge growth against the dollar to the level of 476.