Our comments and expectations
External background. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, which restored the losses it suffered after the publication of inflation data. The energy and banking sectors looked good on the index map, while mega-capitalization companies declined (except META). The focus was on economic data, which came out mixed. Retail sales had a positive effect, which fell by 0.8% in January. At the same time, the consensus of experts converged on a result of 0.1% relative to the previous month, which is significantly less than the actual result. The number of applications for unemployment amounted to 212 thousand in the week ended February 10, which is slightly less than the expected 220 thousand. According to Citigroup strategists, higher-than-expected US inflation data earlier this week did not worsen the outlook for stocks, and any sell-off is a buying opportunity ahead of the Fed's reversal. According to Lisa Chalette of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the rally in American stocks can continue as long as excess liquidity allows traders to buy comfortably. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose by 0.7%, thereby moving up from local consolidation to the highest levels since January 2022. The German DAX has risen above the 50-day moving average, which it recently broke down. There is good growth in Asia, the Hong Kong Hang Seng is growing by 2.5% and is also breaking through the 50-day average. Japan's Nikkei 225 is adding 1% and is closely approaching the highs of the 1990s, which were at the end of a long growth cycle of the stock market since the “Japanese economic miracle” (except for some stagnation after 61 and 73 years). Copper rose by 1.6% and is starting to recoup losses on February 1-9. Oil also rose, but without strong changes in the technical picture.
Bonds. U.S. government bond yields have been declining for the second day in a row, while corporate bonds are regaining lost ground.
The KASE index. KASE has recorded another historical high and a new session in a long series of victories. This time, the market was pulled up by 2 main securities – BCC and Kaspi. So far, no clear signs of a potential correction have been formed on the 4-hour chart.
Index shares. BCC continues its growth, developing new territories. At the moment, the securities are already more expensive than our fundamental estimate of 1,240 tenge, which was given based on the results of the report for the 3rd quarter. Kaspi shares rose by 4.3%, which was not prevented by the large price difference (7.5%) between the exchanges. On the LSE, quotes continued to rebound, but now the test of the first local resistance for securities begins – the 50-day moving average at $93.2. We believe that this level will be overcome and the quotes will be able to reach the area just above $100 again.
Currency. The dollar has been showing moderate growth this morning. The dollar index DXY declined yesterday, but rates on the KASE futures money market also began to fall, which in total gave a slight weakening of the tenge. We are watching for any hints of a more active decline in the national currency on the USDKZT chart.
Key market news
(=) KMGZ: Moody's has confirmed KMG's rating with a positive outlook.