Our comments and expectations
External Background. The S&P 500 showed a slight decline of 0.3% yesterday. As the index is actively testing its 50-day moving average, it experienced significant fluctuations during the session. Today, the market's focus will be on the U.S. jobs report. Expectations are for the number of jobs in the world's largest economy to have increased by about 165,000, with the unemployment rate expected to drop slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. Meanwhile, other labor data was released yesterday: U.S. companies created the fewest jobs last month since early 2021, according to ADP data. Initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 last week from a revised 232,000. The ISM Services Index remained largely unchanged at 51.5 points. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 continued its third consecutive session of decline, losing 0.54%, while the German DAX was more resilient, closing flat. German factory orders unexpectedly grew for the second month in a row, with demand rising 2.9% in July compared to June, while economists had forecast a 1.7% decline. Turkey lowered its 2025 GDP forecast from 4.5% to 4% but remained more optimistic than economists, stating that the government would sacrifice some growth to curb inflation. In Asia this morning, moderate declines were observed. Hong Kong raised its storm warning to the third-highest level due to Typhoon Yagi. Oil prices stalled around $73, with U.S. crude oil inventories shrinking by nearly 6.9 million barrels, marking the ninth consecutive week of declines, just slightly below the forecasted API reduction of 7.4 million barrels.
Bonds. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have fallen for the third consecutive session, reaching 3.73% yesterday. Corporate bonds saw gains.
KASE Index. The KASE index dropped by 0.1% yesterday, failing to break its losing streak. However, we notice that the correction is beginning to slow down, supported by key levels. Trading dynamics next week will partially depend on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report.
Index Stocks. Yesterday, Halyk Bank lost another 1.1%, returning to the levels of its sideways channel seen before the latest growth wave, mirroring the KASE index. Air Astana shares also fell by 1.1%, with an even steeper decline on the LSE, where GDRs were sold off, resulting in a 5.2% drop on the highest volume since August 16. Technically, the stock looks weak without an upward divergence on the daily or 4-hour charts. Kaspi has risen for the second session in a row in the U.S. market, but it still remains below its 50-day moving average.
Currency. Dollar sellers took control yesterday, halting its growth during the session. The USDKZT chart shows shadows of the daily candlestick, indicating volatile trading. Today, the pressure continues, with the exchange rate strengthening to 480.6 tenge per dollar.