Our Comments and Expectations
External Background.
While the Kazakh market was on holiday, the S&P 500 rose by 1.8%. On Friday, the market remained neutral despite the expiration of $21 billion in options. The main growth occurred on Monday amid signs that the sanctions list would be narrower than the markets had expected. Additionally, Trump twice mentioned possible exemptions or easing for certain countries, which reduced concerns and lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut. Yesterday, growth slowed, and analysts' opinions diverged: HSBC strategists downgraded U.S. stocks to "below average," citing economic concerns, while JPMorgan noted that greater clarity on tariffs removes some key risks. In March, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9—the lowest level in four years and below the forecast of 94 points. On the geopolitical front, there were signs of progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia regarding a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The U.S. agreed to help restore Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports and ensure access to payment systems. Oil prices rose by 3% over the weekend, with Brent trading at $73.3 per barrel. Copper is also surging, approaching historical highs amid speculation about potential tariffs from Trump. Asian markets are trading moderately higher today, and Morgan Stanley has raised its annual target levels for Chinese stocks.
Bonds.
Over the weekend, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries reached 4.31%. Emerging market bonds declined.
KASE Index.
During the last trading session on Thursday, the index rose by 0.3% and began testing a local resistance level but failed to break through. Since this morning, we have seen a reversal, with a 0.4% correction.
Index Stocks.
Overall, market sentiment remains moderate. Investors are not rushing to buy, as reflected in the resistance level of 5,650 points acting as a barrier. The impact of external markets over the weekend has also been moderately negative.
Among individual stocks that could pressure the KASE index, Kazatomprom stands out. Its GDRs on the LSE fell by 4.5% over three trading sessions, while uranium prices declined by 1.2%. That said, Kazatomprom's 2024 report can be considered moderately positive. It recorded record annual revenue and significant net profit growth despite a decline in margins. However, free cash flow, which serves as the basis for dividend calculations, increased by only 5.6% year-over-year, reducing the likelihood of significant dividend growth this year.
Currency.
The currency market remains stable, with USDKZT trading around 502 on Forex this morning and slightly lower on the KASE exchange. The ruble against the dollar also remains in a local consolidation phase.